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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

F1: Action of the Year

Name: F1: Action of the Year
End: 2026-12-13T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$8.64K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

F1: Action of the Year

Vol

$8.64K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $8.64K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.64K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

22 markets tracked

Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 Action of the Year?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(22)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	40%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	26%
Will Valtteri Bottas win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	22%
Will Lance Stroll win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	21%
Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	21%
Will Sergio Perez win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	21%
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	21%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	20%
Will Franco Colapinto win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	17%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	14%
Will Esteban Ocon win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	11%
Will George Russell win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	10%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	8%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	8%
Will Carlos Sainz win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	8%
Will Arvid Lindblad win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	8%
Will Alexander Albon win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	7%
Will Fernando Alonso win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	7%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	7%
Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	7%
Will Liam Lawson win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	7%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

40%

Top Probability

$8.64K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the driver who wins the 2026 Action of the Year award for the 2026 Formula 1 season as awarded at the FIA Awards. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 Formula 1 season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no wi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, August 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** F1: Action of the Year
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 13, 2026 (122 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to the driver who wins the 2026 Action of the Year award for the 2026 Formula 1 season as awarded at the FIA Awards.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 Formula 1 season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no wi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the driver who wins the 2026 Action of the Year award for the 2026 Formula 1 season as awarded at the FIA Awards.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this mark"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Alexander Albon win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Fernando Alonso win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $86
  DATA: [Yes: 7.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $519
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $52
  DATA: [Yes: 7.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Arvid Lindblad win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $42
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will George Russell win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $109
  DATA: [Yes: 9.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $343
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $52
  DATA: [Yes: 7.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Valtteri Bottas win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $86
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Franco Colapinto win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $42
  DATA: [Yes: 17.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.8% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $52
  DATA: [Yes: 14.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $212
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $53
  DATA: [Yes: 21.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.7% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Liam Lawson win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $52
  DATA: [Yes: 7.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $91
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Lando Norris win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $76
  DATA: [Yes: 8.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.8% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Esteban Ocon win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $52
  DATA: [Yes: 11.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.8% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $138
  DATA: [Yes: 8.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.9% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Sergio Perez win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $52
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Carlos Sainz win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.9% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $42
  DATA: [Yes: 20.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.1% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Lance Stroll win the 2026 Action of the Year?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 13, 2026): Vol $52
  DATA: [Yes: 21.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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