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Events
GroupKALSHI

Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay: Receptions

Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay: Receptions
Vol

K 9.5K contracts

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Events

1

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Markets

80

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 9.5K contracts

Reported volume ยท provider units

80

Saved contracts

0

Reviewed equivalent pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 16, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

About This Event

PIT vs TB (Oct 18) If Ted Hurst III records X receptions in the Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to Ted Hurst III in the Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026. If Ted Hurst III is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before game start. Once Ted Hurst III takes at least one snap, even if nullified by penalty, the market settles based on receptions recorded. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The sampled contracts come from one Kalshi event, "Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay: Receptions," covering a game the excerpt describes as "originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026" [1]. Each contract asks whether a named player will reach a reception threshold, such as "DK Metcalf: 2+ receptions" or "Jaylen Warren: 3+ receptions." The excerpt states that if a player records X receptions, "then the market resolves to Yes" [1].

The rules also cover edge cases. For the Warren contract, the excerpt says that if the player "is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before game start." Once he "takes at least one snap, even if nullified by penalty, the market settles based on receptions recorded" [1]. The excerpt also says the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1].

Close timing needs care. Each sampled market lists an endDate of 2026-10-20T17:00:00.000Z, but the same excerpt says "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. The listed field and the excerpt do not agree, so the close time should be treated as unconfirmed.

Reading the snapshot

The prices were observed at 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z and retrieved at 06:13:23 UTC the same day [1]. They are a point-in-time snapshot. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

Among the sampled Yes prices, DK Metcalf 2+ receptions is highest at 0.89, followed by Germie Bernard 2+ at 0.855 and Jaylen Warren 2+ at 0.83. Thresholds matter: Metcalf's 3+ contract is 0.765, and Warren's 3+ contract is 0.675 [1]. Each figure belongs to a separate contract, so the gaps should be read as differences in the listed contracts, not as an arbitrage signal.

What remains uncertain

Only 12 of 72 markets in this Kalshi event are included, and the sample is marked as partial [1]. The selection ranks markets by Yes price, highest first, then volume. Markets outside the sample were not shown, so this snapshot cannot describe the full field or the prices of omitted contracts.

The excerpt does not explain why any price is where it is, and it provides no information on traders, trading volume, or recent news. Confirmed status is "active," but the listed end time is not supplied in the excerpt [1]. Readers should check the rules and close time on the provider page before drawing conclusions from these figures.

References

  1. Kalshi: Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay: Receptions. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTC

Overview

This PredictPedia entry covers a sports contract titled "Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay: Receptions" on the Kalshi platform, listed in the Sports category. The provider's event excerpt describes it as a game between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay that was originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 [1]. The wording "originally scheduled" matters: the contract text does not confirm that the game was played on that date or that it took place at all. Each individual contract in this event asks whether a named player will record a stated number of receptions in that game. The provider's rules say that if a named player records at least the stated number of receptions, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The event is built from separate markets for different players and different reception thresholds, such as two or more receptions or three or more receptions [1]. The sampled markets include players from both teams, and each market has its own Yes and No outcomes. The rules also cover a player who is active but never takes a snap. In that case, the provider says the market settles to the fair market price before game start, rather than to a receptions result [1]. A different rule applies once the player takes at least one snap. Even if that play is nullified by a penalty, the market then settles based on the receptions the player recorded [1]. The provider also states that the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. Readers should check the provider's current rules directly, since this summary paraphrases them. The provider states that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or otherwise officially connected with the governing league, and that trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners [1]. For the sampled markets, the market records list an end date of October 20, 2026 at 17:00 UTC [1]. That date is a listed field in the saved market data, not a confirmed game time, a resolution time, or an announced event date. The contract's own rules refer to the game date as October 18, 2026, and the provider's event excerpt states that the event end time was not supplied [1]. The prices recorded in the saved snapshot are the market's Yes and No values at the time of observation. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of any outcome. The sample also covers only part of the event: 12 of 72 markets in the saved provider event were included, using a ranking by Yes price and then by volume [1]. Because the sample is partial, the included markets should not be read as the full field, and no conclusion should be drawn about the excluded markets' prices.

Historical Context

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a professional American football team based in Tampa, Florida, and compete in the National Football League as a member of the National Football Conference South division. The team joined the NFL in 1974 as an expansion team and played its first season in 1976 [2]. The 2020 season was the team's 45th in the NFL, and the team reached and won Super Bowl LV that season [3]. These are historical facts about the franchise. They do not describe the team's current roster, schedule, or status for the October 2026 game.

Why It Matters

The contract measures a single, specific statistic: the number of receptions recorded by a named player in one scheduled game [1]. Because each contract ties to one player and one threshold, the markets offer a narrow view of a single game's outcome rather than a team result [1]. The rules also show how the contract handles uncertainty about playing time. If a player is active but never takes a snap, the market does not resolve on receptions but settles to a fair market price before the game starts [1]. Those rules define what the price represents, which is a market-implied view of the stated outcome and not a verified forecast.

Snapshot context

The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]

Frequently Asked Questions

What does a Yes outcome mean in this contract?

According to the provider's rules, a market resolves to Yes if the named player records the stated number of receptions in the Pittsburgh vs Tampa Bay game originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 [1].

What happens if the named player is active but never takes a snap?

The provider says that in this case the market settles to the fair market price before game start, rather than to a receptions result [1].

Does a penalty affect how the market settles once a player takes a snap?

The provider says that once the player takes at least one snap, the market settles based on receptions recorded, even if the snap is nullified by a penalty [1].

Is the platform connected to the league?

The provider states that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing league [1].

Why does the sample not show every market for this event?

The saved provider event contains 72 markets, and 12 were included in the sample, ranked by Yes price and then by volume [1]. The sample is partial and should not be read as the full field.

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Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Reviewed equivalent pairs

0

No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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