Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9PM ET
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Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract is a single Polymarket market titled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9PM ET" [1]. The excerpt states that it "will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is Binance's ETH/USDT pair, and the excerpt says the market is "about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a similarly titled contract on another platform should check that the candle, pair, and source match, since a different reference price could produce a different outcome.
The listed end time is 2026-11-01T02:00:00.000Z [1]. The excerpt does not explain how that timestamp relates to the 9PM ET wording in the title, so readers should not assume the two are equivalent without checking the provider's own documentation.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-30T13:05:02.791Z [1]. The market was listed as active at the time of retrieval [1]. The prices below describe only that observation:
- Up: 0.5
- Down: 0.5
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence does not include order book depth, spreads, or volume, so it cannot indicate liquidity or how many participants are involved. The equal prices simply describe what was recorded at that time. The evidence does not explain them.
The sample covers one provider event with one market. Coverage shows 1 total market, 1 included, and no partial sample [1]. The sample warning states that all saved markets for this event are included, but that does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome [1]. Because there is only one contract in view, no cross-platform comparison is possible from this record.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot predates the retrieval time by about an hour, so it should not be read as a live price. The evidence does not establish the current price, whether the market is still active, or how the price has changed since observation. The contract's resolution depends on the Binance candle data, which the excerpt says will be used "once the data for that candle is finalized" [1]. No resolution outcome appears in the evidence.
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-term price market on Ethereum, labeled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 9PM ET" and listed in the crypto category on Polymarket [1]. Its rules are narrow. It resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT one-hour candle that begins at the time and date given in the title. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The price source is specified. The resolution source is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair, and the open and close shown for the relevant 1H candle on that chart are used once the data for that candle is finalized [1]. The rules also state that the market concerns the price on Binance ETH/USDT, not the price on other exchanges or other trading pairs [1]. A reader should therefore treat a move on another venue as irrelevant to this contract's wording. The listed end time is 2026-11-01T02:00:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is the listed end time in the provider data. The rules refer to the candle that begins at the time in the title, so the contract's closing time and the candle's timing are related but are not the same field. The provider status recorded in the saved source is "active" [1]. That describes the provider record at retrieval, not the market's status today.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single directional outcome: whether the ETH/USDT price on Binance closes at or above its opening price for one specified one-hour candle [1]. Because the outcome depends on one candle on one venue, the contract isolates a short window of price movement rather than a broader view of Ethereum's value. Its prices reflect how participants are pricing the "Up" and "Down" outcomes at a given moment, but a displayed price is a snapshot and not an executable quote or a verified probability.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether the market resolves Up or Down?
It resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins at the time and date in the title. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price feed is used?
The rules name Binance and the ETH/USDT pair. The open and close shown for the relevant 1H candle are used once that candle's data is finalized [1].
Do prices on other exchanges affect the outcome?
No. The source says the market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs [1].
Does a listed end time mean the candle has already closed?
The source gives a listed end time of 2026-11-01T02:00:00.000Z [1]. The rules say the candle's open and close are used once its data is finalized, so the saved end time alone does not establish the result [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.