Tampa Bay vs Cleveland: Strikeouts
K 286.5K contracts
1
6
Tampa Bay vs Cleveland: Strikeouts
K 286.5K contracts
1
6
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 286.5K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
6
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
About This Event
TB vs CLE (Oct 16) If Nick Martinez records X strikeouts in the Tampa Bay vs Cleveland professional baseball game originally scheduled for Oct 16, 2026 at 6:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes. Player Participation & Settlement Criteria If Nick Martinez is scratched or is not a starting pitcher, the market will resolve to the fair market price. If Nick Martinez is not a starting pitcher but later enters the game, the market will resolve to the fair market price, relief appearances will not count towards this market. If Nick Martinez is a starting pitcher and records at least one batter faced the market will settle based on strikeouts recorded. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after the event occurs.
This saved analysis is awaiting a background update. Its prices and claims may be outdated; compare them with the dated market data above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers a Kalshi event titled "Tampa Bay vs Cleveland: Strikeouts" [1]. Each market asks whether Nick Martinez records at least a stated number of strikeouts in the game "originally scheduled for Oct 16, 2026 at 6:00 PM EDT" [1]. The rules say that if he "is a starting pitcher and records at least one batter faced the market will settle based on strikeouts recorded" [1]. If he is scratched or is not a starting pitcher, the market "will resolve to the fair market price," and "relief appearances will not count towards this market" [1]. Readers comparing lines should check both the threshold and the participation clause, since these determine what each price is measuring.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-16T00:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T01:34:58Z [1]. This is a saved snapshot, not a current reading. All six markets for the event are included, and the sample is not marked as partial [1]. Yes prices fall from 0.915 for 1+ strikeouts to 0.045 for 6+ strikeouts [1]. These are point-in-time quotes, not executable prices or verified probabilities. Volume and liquidity are not shown in this excerpt, so the prices cannot be read as depth. All markets come from one provider event, so the set can be read internally, but no cross-platform comparison is supported.
The timing fields also need care. Each market lists an endDate of 2026-10-19T22:00:00.000Z, while the event excerpt states its listed end time is not supplied [1]. The endDate is a contract field, not an announced game date. The contract text says the market "will close and expire after the event occurs" [1].
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show whether the game was played, whether Martinez started, or how many strikeouts he recorded, so no resolution is available [1]. No observation after the saved snapshot is supplied, so the current price is unknown. The excerpt does not explain why prices sit at these levels. The sample covers only this Kalshi event and does not establish that every real-world outcome is listed [1]. Different Yes prices across thresholds reflect different contracts, so their differences do not by themselves indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Kalshi: Tampa Bay vs Cleveland: Strikeouts. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a Kalshi market within the event titled "Tampa Bay vs Cleveland: Strikeouts" [1]. It concerns a professional baseball game between Tampa Bay and Cleveland that was originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 6:00 PM EDT [1]. The contract asks whether Nick Martinez will record a specified number of strikeouts in that game [1]. Each threshold is its own market, such as 1 or more strikeouts, 2 or more, and so on up to 6 or more [1]. The rules tie settlement to participation. If Martinez is scratched, or is not a starting pitcher, the market resolves to the fair market price rather than to a Yes or No outcome [1]. If he is not a starting pitcher but later enters the game, the market also resolves to the fair market price, and relief appearances do not count toward the market [1]. If he is a starting pitcher and records at least one batter faced, the market settles based on the strikeouts he records [1]. The contract closes and expires after the event occurs [1]. The provider's listed end time was not supplied [1], so the contract's own closing rule is the relevant timing guide. The market data also carries an end date field of October 19, 2026 at 22:00 UTC [1]. That field is a provider data point. It should not be read as an announced game date or as the date the contract resolved. The prices shown in the market data are snapshots taken at the observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. For the Yes side, the saved snapshot shows 0.915 for 1 or more strikeouts, 0.715 for 2 or more, 0.455 for 3 or more, 0.245 for 4 or more, 0.11 for 5 or more, and 0.045 for 6 or more [1]. The No prices are the complements shown in the same data [1]. Because each threshold is a separate contract, the differences between them should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity or as a ranking of outcomes. Kalshi states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing league [1].
Historical Context
The supplied Wikipedia excerpt describes the 2026 American League Championship Series as a planned best-of-seven playoff between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians for the American League pennant and the right to play in the 2026 World Series [2]. The excerpt is written in the future tense and was retrieved as a snapshot, so it does not confirm the series status at the time of this article. The supplied evidence also does not state whether the October 16 game in this contract is part of that series, so no connection is drawn here.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single pitcher's strikeout total in a single game, which makes it narrower than a team or series outcome. Its rules are specific. A game that never occurs, a scratch, or a non-starting appearance can lead to fair market price settlement rather than a simple Yes or No result [1]. Relief appearances do not count [1]. Because each threshold is a separate market with its own price, the set of six markets shows how the provider priced different strikeout levels at the observation time [1]. Those prices reflect a single snapshot and do not show current conditions or the number of participants [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does this contract actually measure?
It measures whether Nick Martinez records a specified number of strikeouts in the Tampa Bay vs Cleveland game originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 6:00 PM EDT [1]. Each market is a separate threshold, such as 3 or more strikeouts [1].
Do relief appearances count toward the market?
No. If Martinez is not a starting pitcher but later enters the game, the market resolves to the fair market price, and relief appearances do not count [1].
What happens if Martinez is scratched?
If he is scratched or is not a starting pitcher, the market resolves to the fair market price [1].
Are the prices probabilities?
The prices are snapshots from the provider's data at the observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
