Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This snapshot covers five Polymarket contracts from one event, "Pro Football: Bryce Young 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Touchdowns" [1]. Each contract asks whether Bryce Young will record at least a set number of passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. The thresholds are 14.5, 17.5, 20.5, 23.5, and 26.5. The rules say the market resolves to "Yes" if the count "equals or exceeds the listed number," and to "No" otherwise [1].

The rules also set edge cases. If Young does not play in the season for any reason, the market resolves to "No" [1]. If the season is shortened or ends early, the outcome uses official data for completed games [1]. If the season is cancelled, is postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the count cannot be determined, the market resolves to "50-50" [1]. The resolution source is official NFL information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].

The listed end time is 2027-01-27T04:59:00Z [1]. This is the provider's close time, not the date the outcome is known or the market resolves.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T03:00:06Z, and our retrieval occurred at 2026-10-16T05:24:31Z [1]. These are point-in-time quotes, not current prices, and they are not executable quotes. Each contract's "Yes" and "No" prices sum to 1.00 in the saved data.

Quoted "Yes" prices are 0.885 for 14.5 or more, 0.823 for 20.5 or more, 0.700 for 17.5 or more, 0.615 for 23.5 or more, and 0.565 for 26.5 or more [1]. Across these thresholds, the quoted "Yes" price falls as the required touchdown count rises. The contracts are separate questions with separate thresholds, so they should be read individually rather than treated as a single probability distribution.

The sample includes all five saved markets for this event, and the coverage record marks it as not partial [1]. The source notes that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. Volume data was not part of the evidence, so nothing here speaks to liquidity or how many traders participated.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why these prices are where they are, and it contains no reporting on Young's status, health, or depth-chart position. It also does not show how the market has moved over time or how the quoted prices have performed against actual results.

References

1. Polymarket: Pro Football: Bryce Young 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Touchdowns. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.