BNB Up or Down - November 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
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BNB Up or Down - November 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract covers the BNB price window titled "BNB Up or Down - November 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET" on Polymarket [1]. Per the stated rules, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a BNB price on another exchange or data feed should expect a different reference.
The saved record lists an end time of 2026-11-01T21:55:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, so readers should check the two timestamps on their own clock rather than assume they match.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are provider prices from a single observation, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The record was observed at 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z and retrieved at 2026-11-01T11:39:01.985Z [1]. The figures describe that saved moment only and should not be read as live prices now.
The two outcomes are close, with Up slightly higher in this snapshot. The gap is 0.010 on a 0 to 1 scale. The record does not explain why the prices stand where they do, and it contains no information about trading activity or the number of participants.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, and the coverage record marks it as complete with no partial sample [1]. This is a single contract, so there is no cross-market comparison to make. The saved record also says the provider lists "active" status [1].
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not show the BNB price at any point during the window, the reference price at the start of the window, or the final TWAP. The outcome is therefore unknown in this record.
The evidence also does not confirm that the providers list every possible real-world outcome. The sample warning states that the saved markets are included but that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Since this contract has only Up and Down outcomes, the warning matters mainly for comparisons with other platforms, which should be made only after checking that their rules match.
Finally, the record contains no information about liquidity, bid and ask spreads, or whether a trade at the quoted price could be executed.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - November 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 1, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-window price market titled "BNB Up or Down - November 1, 4:50PM to 4:55PM ET," listed under the crypto category on Polymarket [1]. It asks whether the price of BNB, measured in US dollars, will move up or down over a five-minute window. The contract's rules say it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. If not, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The price reference is not a spot market or an exchange feed chosen by the contract writer. The rules name Chainlink as the source, specifically its BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and state that only this Chainlink data stream counts, not other sources or spot markets [1]. This means the outcome depends on how that particular data stream averages prices across the window, rather than on the last trade reported elsewhere. The listed end time is 2026-11-01T21:55:00Z, which corresponds to the close of the 4:55PM ET window [1]. The contract's rules describe when the market is scheduled to close. They do not, by themselves, show that any resolution has occurred or what the final result was. The supplied evidence does not include a resolved outcome for this contract. At the observation time of 2026-11-01T09:00:05Z, the saved snapshot showed the Up outcome at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 [1]. These figures are prices from that earlier snapshot, not current or executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. A price near one half for each side reflects only what the market showed at that moment. The contract's rules, its close time, and its data source are the stable features to focus on.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP over the five-minute window from 4:50PM to 4:55PM ET finishes at or above the value at the start of that window [1]. Because the reference is an average over the window rather than a single instant, the result can differ from a simple comparison of prices at the start and end. Traders following this kind of contract are therefore tracking a specific data stream and its averaging method, as set out in the rules [1]. The contract is also narrow in scope. Its title, rules and listed end time all refer to one short interval on one date, so it speaks only to that window and not to BNB's longer-term direction [1]. Anyone reading the prices should keep the source, the window, and the snapshot time in view together.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-01 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What price source decides this contract?
The rules name Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream, as the resolution source. They state that other sources or spot markets are not used for this contract [1].
How does the contract decide between Up and Down?
It resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1].
When does this contract's window close?
The listed end time is 2026-11-01T21:55:00Z, which matches the 4:55PM ET close named in the title [1].
Does a price near 0.5 for each outcome mean the result is uncertain?
The saved snapshot showed Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 at 2026-11-01T09:00:05Z [1]. Those are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they do not establish how the market would settle.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
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