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Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)

Name: UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)
End: 2026-05-03T03:59:59.999Z

Total Volume

$63.76K

Events

Markets

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UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)

Vol

$63.76K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $63.76K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $63.76K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Poly	72%
Will Quillan Salkilld win by KO or TKO?	Poly	61%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	54%
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Poly	47%
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Poly	34%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)	Poly	24%
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	20%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	19%
Will Beneil Dariush win by KO or TKO?	Poly	10%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

72%

Top Probability

$63.76K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Beneil Dariush" if Beneil Dariush is officially declared the winner of the fight against Quillan Salkilld at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026. It will resolve to "Quillan Salkilld" if Quillan Salkilld is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this ma

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 3, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Beneil Dariush" if Beneil Dariush is officially declared the winner of the fight against Quillan Salkilld at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026.

It will resolve to "Quillan Salkilld" if Quillan Salkilld is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this ma

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Beneil Dariush and Quillan Salkilld at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If the fight "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $63.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $55.7K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.14)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $280
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Beneil Dariush win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Quillan Salkilld win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $740
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the fight be won by submission?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $37
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 28.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $228
  DATA: [Over: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [Under: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $62.5K
  DATA: [Beneil Dariush: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [Quillan Salkilld: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Fight to Go the Distance?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $21
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 66.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)

Volume$63.76K

Markets9

9 of 9

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Will Quillan Salkilld win by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 60.5¢No 39.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Quillan Salkilld win by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Quillan Salkilld defeats Beneil Dariush at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or b

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 54.0¢No 46.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Beneil Dariush and Quillan Salkilld at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight

POLYMARKET

Fight to Go the Distance?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Fight to Go the Distance?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Beneil Dariush and Quillan Salkilld at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

POLYMARKET

Will the fight be won by submission?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will the fight be won by submission?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Beneil Dariush and Quillan Salkilld at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwis

POLYMARKET

Will Beneil Dariush win by KO or TKO?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Will Beneil Dariush win by KO or TKO?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Beneil Dariush defeats Quillan Salkilld at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or b

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Average Yes Price

38¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/4vdN3Q" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)"></iframe>

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UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)

UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)

Markets (9)

Will Quillan Salkilld win by KO or TKO?

Will Quillan Salkilld win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will Beneil Dariush win by KO or TKO?

Will Beneil Dariush win by KO or TKO?

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Discussion

Market Insights

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Over/Under 0.5 Rounds

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)

Will Quillan Salkilld win by KO or TKO?

Will Quillan Salkilld win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will Beneil Dariush win by KO or TKO?

Will Beneil Dariush win by KO or TKO?

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Discussion

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