Snapshot observed 2026-10-31T21:00:06.793Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The event is "North Dakota House District 4B winner? (2028)" on Kalshi [1]. The rules state that "If X wins the 2028 general election for North Dakota House District 4B, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Party affiliation follows "the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot, regardless of subsequent changes" [1]. The rules also address candidates with more than one party label, independent and unaffiliated candidates, unlisted write-ins, and candidates "declared elected without a vote" [1].

The two saved markets differ only in the party named. One asks whether the Republican Party wins, and the other asks whether the Democratic Party wins [1]. The rules say the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1].

Reading the snapshot

The prices were observed at 2026-10-31T21:00:06.793Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-31T22:48:14.143Z [1]. These values describe that earlier observation and should not be read as live conditions.

In the snapshot, the Republican Yes and No outcomes were each priced at 0.5, and the Democratic Yes and No outcomes were also each priced at 0.5 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Equal prices in two separate contracts describe only this observation. They do not establish any relationship between the contracts or any trading opportunity.

The provider lists an end date of 2029-11-07T15:00:00.000Z for both markets [1]. The source excerpt, however, says the listed end time is "not supplied" [1]. Treat the end date as a recorded field, not as an announced event date. The supplied rules do not explain how this field relates to the 2028 election.

The supplied data includes no volume figures, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many people are trading.

What remains uncertain

The sample covers both saved markets for this single provider event, with 2 of 2 markets included and no partial sample flag [1]. The sample warning adds that it "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Other candidates or outcomes may exist outside this saved sample, and the omission of any outcome does not indicate its price.

No data from other platforms is included, so these prices cannot be compared with or averaged against another provider's contract. The excerpt also does not describe any events or developments affecting this race.

References

1. Kalshi: North Dakota House District 4B winner? (2028). Provider data observed 2026-10-31T21:00:06.793Z.