BNB Up or Down - October 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T21:00:06.198Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract, titled "BNB Up or Down - October 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET," resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the title's time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-26T18:45:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers should check both when comparing this contract with a clock. The rules describe how the market settles. They do not announce any event, and this snapshot does not show whether or when settlement has occurred.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-25T21:00:06.198Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-25T21:48:36.082Z [1]. These are the times of the saved data, not live conditions. The status was recorded as "active" [1].
The saved prices are "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two outcomes sum to 1.000 in this record, and the market is binary, so the sample contains both possible outcomes.
The coverage record lists one market for this event, with one included and no partial sample [1]. The sample therefore covers the full saved event. It is a single contract from a single platform, so there is no cross-platform comparison here. Volume was not included in the supplied data, so this snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many traders participated.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stand where they do, and this summary does not attempt to. The slight tilt toward "Up" is a small difference in the snapshot, not a forecast or a signal about the outcome.
The evidence also does not show any price changes after the retrieval time, the BNB price path during the window, or the value of the TWAP. Because the price quoted here is from the observation time, readers should not treat it as the current price. Anyone comparing this contract with a similar one should first confirm that the time ranges, reference assets, and resolution sources match, since differences in wording can change what each contract pays out.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T21:00:06.198Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window crypto contract from Polymarket that asks whether the price of BNB, measured against USD, will move up or down over a five-minute window on October 26, 2026, from 2:40 PM to 2:45 PM ET [1]. The contract has two outcomes, Up and Down. It resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1]. The measurement is specific. The contract uses Chainlink as its resolution source, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream for a 60-second TWAP [1]. The provider states that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream and not the price reported by other sources or spot markets [1]. A reader should therefore treat the contract as a question about that particular data feed, which may differ from prices shown elsewhere. The listed end time is 2026-10-26T18:45:00Z [1]. That end time is a contract rule taken from the provider record. It describes when the contract is set to close, and it does not indicate that any event is scheduled to happen at that time. The saved provider record shows the market with an Up price of 0.505 and a Down price of 0.495 at the time it was observed on 2026-10-25T21:00:06Z [1]. These are snapshot prices from that observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of the outcome. Because this is a single binary market in the saved record, the two prices reflect how that snapshot was priced by the platform and nothing more.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow question about BNB's USD price movement within one five-minute interval, as recorded by one named data feed [1]. Its value comes from the precise rules: the outcome depends on the TWAP over the window compared with the starting price, not on a single price printed at one moment [1]. Readers who want to understand the contract should focus on the resolution source and the timing rules, since those determine what counts as Up or Down [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract resolves Up if the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP over the stated five-minute window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which data source is used to settle the contract?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second TWAP [1]. The provider says the market is about that data stream and not other sources or spot markets [1].
When is the contract set to end?
The listed end time in the provider record is 2026-10-26T18:45:00Z [1]. This is the contract's listed end time and does not describe any separate event.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.