UT-02 House Election Winner
PM $33.4K
1
2
UT-02 House Election Winner
PM $33.4K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Blake Moore (R) at 93.5%.
Polymarket
- Blake Moore (R)93.5%
- Peter Crosby (D)4.3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $33.4K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved Polymarket event "UT-02 House Election Winner" has two contracts. One asks whether the Republican Party will win the UT-02 House seat, and the other asks the same about the Democratic Party [1]. The event states that it "will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections," and it notes that "The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026" [1].
The rules define party membership by ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation at the time the House elections are conclusively called. A candidate without a Democratic or Republican ballot listing is assigned to a party based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus [1]. Resolution relies on "a consensus of credible reporting," and if that is ambiguous, on official results from the Federal Election Commission [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, which falls after the stated election date. The rules do not say that a result will be announced on that timestamp, so the listed close time should be read as a contract field, not an event schedule.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-18T04:10:55.810Z [1]. These are snapshot values at observation time, not live quotes or executable prices.
The Republican "Yes" price is 0.925 and the Democratic "Yes" price is 0.0635 [1]. Those two Yes prices sum to 0.9885, which is close to but not exactly 1. This snapshot does not explain that gap, and the prices should not be treated as verified probabilities. The two contracts are worded differently, although they are part of the same event, so the reader should compare each contract's own rules rather than assume they are mirror images.
The sample covers both saved markets in this event: 2 of 2 were included, and the sample is not marked as partial [1]. The source also warns that the saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. This comparison therefore covers only the two contracts in this saved snapshot.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show current prices after the observation time, trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants. It also does not explain why the prices are at these levels. Comparing these contracts with any other platform would require that platform's own wording, close time, and resolution rules, which are not in this evidence.
References
- Polymarket: UT-02 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 18, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
PredictPedia tracks a Polymarket event titled UT-02 House Election Winner. The contract concerns the U.S. House seat for Texas's 2nd congressional district (UT-02). According to the market's rules, it will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins that seat in the 2026 midterm elections [1]. The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][3]. Wikipedia's entry on the 2026 House elections in Texas describes the state's thirty-eight U.S. House seats as being elected on that date, with primaries held on March 3, 2026 and runoffs on May 26 where no candidate passed 50 percent [3]. The event contains two separate yes or no contracts: one asks whether the Republican Party will win the seat, and the other asks whether the Democratic Party will win it [1]. Because the seat's outcome can only go to one party, the two contracts are closely tied to each other, but each is a distinct market with its own listed prices. The listed end time for the market is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. This is the platform's listed end time and should not be read as the date the result was announced. The rules define how the party is assigned. A candidate's party is based on the ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources [1]. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican parties is assigned to one of those parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at the same point [1]. The rules therefore look to the time the races are called, not to the time the contract was created. Resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting. If that reporting is ambiguous, the market resolves based on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1]. The contract's rules direct the resolution to these sources and do not name a specific news outlet. The Wikipedia excerpts used here describe the election as scheduled and, at their retrieval time, use future-tense wording such as "will be held" [2][3]. They do not report a result. The provider's status for this event is listed as active [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures which party will hold the UT-02 U.S. House seat after the 2026 midterm elections, as determined by the market's rules [1]. Because the rules tie the party to ballot-listed affiliation or caucus intent at the time races are conclusively called, the contract reflects how the seat is assigned under those definitions rather than a general view of the district [1]. The contract's rules also say that resolution relies on credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback when reporting is ambiguous [1]. Anyone reading the contract should check these definitions, since they determine what counts as a Republican or Democratic win.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-18 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the election that this contract depends on?
The contract refers to the 2026 midterm elections, which will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The Texas House and U.S. House election pages describe the same November 3, 2026 date [2][3].
How is the winning party determined?
The winning party is determined by the candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Candidates without a Democratic or Republican ballot affiliation are assigned to a party based on the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with [1].
What happens if the reporting on the result is unclear?
If there is ambiguity in credible reporting, the market resolves based solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1].
Do the two contracts in this event work the same way?
Each contract asks a separate yes or no question, one about a Republican win and one about a Democratic win, and each has its own listed prices [1]. The prices are snapshots taken at the time shown in this article and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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