BNB Up or Down - October 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T12:00:06.236Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract covers a single 15-minute window, listed as "BNB Up or Down - October 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET." The provider states that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
Comparing this with other BNB contracts requires checking these exact terms. A different data source, averaging method, or time window would produce a different question even if the title looks similar.
Reading the snapshot
The saved Polymarket record shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from the provider's observation at 2026-10-28T12:00:06Z, not a current reading. The source was retrieved at 2026-10-28T12:12:43Z [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T15:00:00Z [1], which matches the 11:00 AM ET end in the title.
The two prices sum to 1.000, so this record contains no separate third outcome. The gap between them is small, so the snapshot does not suggest a strong tilt toward either result. Prices are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Any spread, fee, or fill price a trader might face is absent from this record.
The saved record also does not include trading volume or trader counts, so it cannot show how much activity sits behind these prices or how many participants hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and this analysis does not attribute any movement to news or events. The record also contains no BNB price data, so it cannot show whether the asset moved during the window or what the starting price was. Those facts would determine the resolution, but they are not in the supplied material.
Only one market is included in this sample, and the provider reports that all saved markets for this event are included. That does not show that every possible outcome exists in the real-world field. This snapshot cannot be compared with prices from other platforms or other BNB contracts unless their rules, windows, and data sources match. Differences in wording or close times alone do not create an opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T12:00:06.236Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term crypto contract on Polymarket titled "BNB Up or Down - October 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET." The contract asks whether the price of BNB will rise or fall over a fifteen-minute window, as measured by a specific data feed rather than by any exchange or market price. The source lists two outcomes, "Up" and "Down" [1]. The resolution rule compares two values. According to the provider's rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. If the average is lower than the starting price, the market resolves to "Down" [1]. Because the comparison uses an average over the window instead of a single price at the close, a brief move at the end of the window does not by itself determine the result. The resolution source is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream, which the provider links in its rules [1]. The provider states that the market concerns the price according to this Chainlink data stream for the BNB/USD pair, and not according to any other source or spot market [1]. Traders reading the price of BNB on another exchange or aggregator should therefore expect that figure to differ from the figure that decides this contract. The provider's listed end time for the contract is 2026-10-28T15:00:00.000Z [1]. That is the scheduled end of the market, not a record of when the outcome was determined. The provider reported the contract as active at the time of the saved observation [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP over the stated fifteen-minute window finishes at or above its starting level [1]. Its value to a reader is mainly in understanding exactly what is being predicted. The outcome depends on a time-weighted average from one named data stream, so the contract tests a rule-defined measurement rather than a general opinion about BNB's direction. Anyone interpreting the contract's price should keep the rules in view, because the contract is settled by that feed and not by other prices. The saved market snapshot shows the "Up" outcome at 0.505 and the "Down" outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are prices from a single observation and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved snapshot was taken at 2026-10-28T12:00:06.236Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-28T12:12:43.533Z [1]. Those values describe that earlier moment only and should not be read as the price now.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract compares the time-weighted average price of BNB over the stated window with the price at the beginning of that window. It resolves to "Up" if the average is greater than or equal to the starting price, and to "Down" otherwise [1].
Which price source is used to settle the market?
The resolution source is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream. The provider says the market is about the price according to that stream, not other sources or spot markets [1].
Does the listed end time mean the outcome has been determined?
No. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T15:00:00.000Z, and it marks the scheduled end of the market. The provider's saved record shows the contract as active at the time of observation, so the end time alone does not establish a result [1].
Are the prices shown for this contract the chances of an outcome?
The saved prices are single snapshots of the Up and Down outcomes, at 0.505 and 0.495 respectively [1]. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the snapshot reflects only the time it was taken.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.