US military action against Cuba by...? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

US military action against Cuba by...?

Name: US military action against Cuba by...?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.22M

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Markets

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US military action against Cuba by...?

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Polymarket

markets · $3.22M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.22M

100%

Polymarket leads

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1 market tracked

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Poly	37%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

37%

Top Probability

$3.22M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, May 30, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US military action against Cuba by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (215 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies,

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.04M
* **Total Liquidity:** $72.2K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 14.44)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. US strike on Cuba by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.04M
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

214d 6h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

37¢

Polymarket

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US military action against Cuba by...?

US military action against Cuba by...?

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US strike on Cuba by December 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)