Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Will West Virginia's population grow in 2026?

Total Volume

$1.85K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will West Virginia's population grow in 2026?

Vol

$1.85K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.85K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.85K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will West Virginia's resident population estimate for July 1, 2026 be above 1,766,147?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will West Virginia's resident population estimate for July 1, 2026 be above 1,766,147?	Kalshi	25%

AI Analysis

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25%

Top Probability

$1.85K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

2026 If the U.S. Census Bureau reports West Virginia's resident population estimate for July 1, 2026 is above 1,766,147, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use the Vintage 2026 July 1, 2026 resident population estimate for West Virginia published by the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program. The threshold of 1,766,147 is fixed and will not change if Census subsequently revises its estimate of West Virginia's 2025 population. This market will close and expire early if th

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will West Virginia's population grow in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If the U.S. Census Bureau reports West Virginia's resident population estimate for July 1, 2026 is above 1,766,147, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use the Vintage 2026 July 1, 2026 resident population estimate for West Virginia published by the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program.

The threshold of 1,766,147 is fixed and will not change if Census subsequently revises its estimate of West Virginia's 2025 population. This market will close and expire early if th

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the U.S. Census Bureau reports West Virginia's resident population estimate for July 1, 2026 is above 1,766,147, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use the Vintage 2026 July 1, 2026 resident population estimate for West Virginia published by the U.S. Census Bureau P"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will West Virginia's resident population estimate for July 1, 2026 be above 1,766,147?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics