Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion
PM $29.0K · K 12.56M contracts
2
118
Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion
PM $29.0K · K 12.56M contracts
2
118
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 23, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, Ohio St. is priced at 22% on Polymarket and 0.4% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio St.Same question, fine print differs | 22% | 0.4% | 21.6 pts |
| DukeSame question, fine print differs | 21% | 14.5% | 6.5 pts |
| CreightonSame question, fine print differs | 14.5% | 0.1% | 14.4 pts |
| FloridaSame question, fine print differs | 14.5% | 12.5% | 2.0 pts |
| IllinoisSame question, fine print differs | 12.5% | 5.8% | 6.8 pts |
| LouisvilleSame question, fine print differs | 7.2% | 3% | 4.1 pts |
| UConnSame question, fine print differs | 4.7% | 6.8% | 2.2 pts |
| TennesseeSame question, fine print differs | 6.5% | 2.6% | 3.8 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $29.0K · K 12.56M contracts
Reported volume · provider units
118
Saved contracts
39
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 23, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
2026-27 Season If X is the 2026-27 Division 1 Men's College Basketball National Champion, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early after a result is declared.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Kalshi event asks which team will win the 2026-27 Division 1 Men's College Basketball National Championship. The rules state: "If X is the 2026-27 Division 1 Men's College Basketball National Champion, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] Each team has its own Yes/No contract, so a contract on one team resolves based on that team alone.
The excerpt also says: "This market will close and expire early after a result is declared." [1] The saved market data lists an end date of 2027-04-27 14:00 UTC, but the same excerpt reports "Listed end time: not supplied." [1] Because these conflict, the closing time should be confirmed on the provider page. The end date is not an announced event date.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-13 03:00:06 UTC, and the source was retrieved at 04:52:55 UTC the same day. [1] These are historical snapshots, not live quotes, and they are not executable prices.
Among the included markets, Yes prices range from 0.145 for Duke to 0.0305 for Louisville. [1] Duke has the highest included Yes price, but each figure belongs to a separate contract. The prices should not be summed, averaged, or combined into one probability. The snapshot also does not explain why any price is at its level.
A price shows only the quoted level at that time. It does not indicate trading volume, liquidity, or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
Only 12 of 73 markets in this provider event are included. [1] The sample ranks markets by highest finite Yes price, then by volume. Omitted teams are not displayed, so no conclusion can be drawn that they trade at lower prices. Rankings from other events or platforms are not comparable with this sample.
The supplied evidence does not include the closing time, any results, or any later pricing. Readers should treat this as a single saved snapshot and check the current provider page before drawing conclusions.
References
- Kalshi: Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract is a listed market on Kalshi titled "Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion," within a 2026-27 season event. Its rules state that if a specified team is the 2026-27 Division 1 men's college basketball national champion, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The contract is therefore tied to a single season's national title, and each sampled market asks whether one named team will win it [1]. The season's calendar is described in background sources. The 2026-27 Division 1 men's season is described as beginning on November 1, 2026 and ending on March 14, 2027, with the March Madness Opening Round starting March 16, 2027 and the championship game at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan on April 5, 2027 [3]. A separate tournament description says the 88th edition is scheduled to begin on March 16, 2027, with the championship game on April 5, 2027 at Ford Field, and that the field will expand from 68 teams to 76 with the introduction of an Opening Round [2]. These are scheduled dates from reference pages, not confirmed results. The contract's rules also state that the market will close and expire early once a result is declared [1]. The provider data did not supply a listed end time for the event [1]. The end date shown in the sampled market records is a provider field and should not be read as an announced event date for the championship or as the moment the market will settle. The sampled markets are individual teams, including Duke, Florida, UConn, Illinois, Texas, Michigan St., Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Arizona, Arkansas, Houston, and Louisville [1]. Each market uses Yes and No outcomes. Prices on these markets are snapshots of the order book at the observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Trading volume is not a measure of liquidity or of how many people traded.
Historical Context
The supplied background sources describe the scheduled structure of the 2027 tournament rather than any results. The 88th edition of the Division 1 men's tournament is described as involving 76 teams in a single-elimination format to determine the national champion for the 2026-27 season, and it is scheduled to conclude on April 5, 2027 at Ford Field in Detroit [2]. The same source says the tournament will introduce an Opening Round and expand the field from 68 teams [2]. No championship result or other outcome from the season is included in the supplied evidence, so this section covers only the structure of the upcoming tournament.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a named team wins the 2026-27 Division 1 men's college basketball national championship [1]. Because the rules tie resolution to the national champion for that season, the outcome depends on the result of the scheduled tournament described in the background sources [2][3]. The contract also states that Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA, and that trademarks belong to their owners [1]. The market is open to trading while the event is active, and the provider status at retrieval was active [1]. Prices reflect what traders were willing to pay at the observation time, so they can change as the season progresses. Readers should treat them as market snapshots rather than forecasts that a team will or will not win.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome on this contract mean?
Under the contract rules, the market resolves to Yes if the named team is the 2026-27 Division 1 men's college basketball national champion [1].
When does the contract close?
The rules state the market will close and expire early after a result is declared [1]. The provider data did not supply a listed end time for the event [1]. The sampled market records show an end date of April 27, 2027, but that is a provider field and not an announced event date.
When is the championship game scheduled?
Reference pages describe the championship game as scheduled for April 5, 2027 at Ford Field in Detroit [2][3]. These are scheduled dates, not confirmed results.
Does the sample show every team in the market?
No. The sample includes 12 of 73 markets in this provider event, so it is a partial sample [1]. The included markets are ordered by Yes price, and the omitted teams should not be assumed to have lower prices.
Are the prices probabilities?
No. Prices are snapshots at the observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
Is Kalshi affiliated with the NCAA?
The contract rules state that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
22
Same-question pairs
39
Largest saved gap: 21.6 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
