Men's Round of 64 Qualifiers
PM $64.0K · K 17.99M contracts
5
426
Men's Round of 64 Qualifiers
PM $64.0K · K 17.99M contracts
5
426
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, Duke is priced at 21% on Polymarket and 15.5% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| DukeSame question, fine print differs | 21% | 15.5% | 5.5 pts |
| FloridaSame question, fine print differs | 14.5% | 12.5% | 2.0 pts |
| IllinoisSame question, fine print differs | 10.5% | 9.2% | 1.3 pts |
| UConnSame question, fine print differs | 7% | 8.8% | 1.8 pts |
| LouisvilleSame question, fine print differs | 6.5% | 2.8% | 3.8 pts |
| KansasSame question, fine print differs | 5.1% | 2.3% | 2.8 pts |
| GonzagaSame question, fine print differs | 5% | 2.4% | 2.6 pts |
| Texas TechSame question, fine print differs | 4.7% | 2.3% | 2.4 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $64.0K · K 17.99M contracts
Reported volume · provider units
426
Saved contracts
40
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 8, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
2027 Round of 64 If X qualifies for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 64, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves to Yes if the team qualifies for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 64. This will be determined by whether or not they qualify; if they qualify but do not end up competing, the market will still resolve to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-04T21:00:06.248Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved Kalshi event asks whether a team will qualify for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 64. The rules state: "If X qualifies for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 64, then the market resolves to Yes." They add that the outcome "will be determined by whether or not they qualify; if they qualify but do not end up competing, the market will still resolve to Yes" [1]. Each team has its own contract, so a Yes price on one team describes only that team's qualification.
The rules also say the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1]. That wording matters for timing: a contract can end before its listed close time. The market records in this snapshot list an end date of 2027-04-01T14:00:00.000Z for every included team, but the source excerpt reports the listed end time as "not supplied" [1]. Treat that end date as a listed close time in the saved data, not as an announced event date.
Reading the snapshot
The market prices were observed at 2026-11-04T21:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-05T02:37:38Z [1]. These are a record of that moment. They are not live quotes and should not be read as executable prices or verified probabilities.
Within the included sample, Yes prices range from 0.885 to 0.915. Florida and Duke are listed at 0.915, Illinois and UConn at 0.91, and Kansas, Louisville, Texas and St. John's at 0.885 or 0.89 for the other included teams. Each contract's No price is listed alongside its Yes price. These are separate contracts, so their differences describe the saved snapshot only and do not indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
This is a partial sample. The event has 125 markets, and 12 are included [1]. The included markets were selected by highest Yes price, then volume. A team that is not in the sample is not shown to have a lower price, because the omitted markets were not priced in this record. The volume figures are not included here, and volume should not be read as liquidity or as a count of traders.
The snapshot does not explain why any price is where it is, and no outside news or context is supplied. The evidence contains no information about how well these prices have forecast past outcomes. Readers should check the current contract rules and listed close times directly on the platform before drawing conclusions.
References
- Kalshi: Men's Round of 64 Qualifiers. Provider data observed 2026-11-04T21:00:06.248Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 5, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This Kalshi event, titled Men's Round of 64 Qualifiers, is a contract series tied to whether specific men's college basketball teams qualify for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 64 [1]. Each listed contract asks a single question about one team. Under the stated rules, the market resolves to Yes if the team qualifies for that round, and the outcome is determined by whether or not the team qualifies [1]. Qualification is the test, not participation. If a team qualifies but does not end up competing, the market still resolves to Yes [1]. The event page states that the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The contracts list an end date of April 1, 2027 at 14:00 UTC, but that is the listed contract closing time, not a date for the tournament or for qualification [1]. The page does not supply a separate listed end time for the event itself [1]. The provider notes that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA, and that all trademarks, logos, and brand names belong to their respective owners [1]. Readers should treat the contract as a Kalshi product that references NCAA tournament qualification, not as an NCAA product. The prices shown in this article are a partial sample of one provider event. The event contains 125 markets, and 12 are included here [1]. The sample is selected by highest Yes price first, then by volume, so it reflects only those included contracts and should not be read as the complete field. The figures are snapshots of listed prices at the time of observation, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and volume shown in the data does not measure liquidity or the number of traders.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single, narrow outcome: whether a named men's college basketball team qualifies for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 64 [1]. Because the rule counts qualification rather than actual play, a team that qualifies and then does not compete still produces a Yes result [1]. This distinction matters for anyone reading the contract terms closely. The listed prices in the sample range from 0.865 to 0.915 for the Yes outcome among the included teams, with the No outcome priced at the complement in each listed contract [1]. Florida and Duke are listed at 0.915 Yes, and St. John's is listed at 0.865 Yes [1]. These are snapshot prices from the observation time, not current quotes. Any comparison across teams in this sample reflects only the contracts shown, and differing prices between contracts do not by themselves indicate an opportunity.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-03 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes a Men's Round of 64 Qualifiers contract resolve to Yes?
The contract resolves to Yes if the named team qualifies for the 2027 Men's College Basketball Round of 64 [1]. Whether the team qualifies is the deciding factor [1].
Does a team have to play in the Round of 64 for the contract to resolve to Yes?
No. The rules state that if a team qualifies but does not end up competing, the market still resolves to Yes [1].
When does the market close?
The market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The listed contract end date is April 1, 2027 at 14:00 UTC, which is a contract closing time and not a scheduled event date [1].
Is Kalshi affiliated with the NCAA?
No. The provider states that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
11
Same-question pairs
40
Largest saved gap: 5.5 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
