This PredictPedia contract asks how many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during the calendar year 2026. The contract rules say the total is based on the landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) on its Tropical Cyclone Data Center page under the 'Landfalling TCs' heading, as published in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026 [1]. Every landfalling system on that page counts toward the total, whatever its intensity at landfall, including tropical depressions, tropical storms, severe tropical storms, typhoons, severe typhoons and super typhoons [1]. Each cyclone is counted once, even if it makes landfall more than once [1]. The CMA's records also decide which mainland and island locations qualify as landfall in China [1]. The contract is organized as a set of count brackets. According to the rules, one bracket resolves Yes and all others resolve No [1]. The brackets in the current snapshot are exactly 5, exactly 6, exactly 7, exactly 8, more than 8, and fewer than 5 [1]. Because the rules tie each bracket to a single final count, the brackets are mutually exclusive. The snapshot records a listed end time of 2027-07-01T03:59:00 UTC for most brackets, while the fewer than 5 bracket shows 2027-06-30T23:59:00 UTC [1]. These are the closing times listed by the provider. They are not the date the count will be known, and the rules do not describe an announced event date. The rules distinguish several timestamps. The provider observation time, the source retrieval time and the contract closing time are separate things. The contract closing time is the point after which trading stops, and resolution happens later, once the count is settled under the rules. A market price shown at one time is a snapshot. It is not an executable quote, and it is not a verified probability that a given count will occur. Trading volume also says nothing about liquidity or the number of participants. Different brackets can carry different prices without creating an arbitrage opportunity, because each bracket settles on its own outcome and prices reflect trading at the time of the snapshot. The resolution rules include a fallback. If the CMA 'Landfalling TCs' page is inaccessible, or if the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution switches to the number of tropical cyclones China reports as making landfall in the 2026 season, counted on the same all-intensity basis, as recorded in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for that season [1].

Historical Context

A Wikipedia overview of the 2026 season, retrieved alongside the contract data, describes tropical cyclones forming in seven basins and reports that 115 tropical cyclones had formed so far, with 77 receiving an official name or reaching tropical storm-force winds. That overview gives the figure as of October 17 [2]. It also notes that Tropical Storm Maysak caused 171 deaths in the Western Pacific, and that Typhoon Dolphin was the costliest system, causing US$4.12 billion in damages mainly in China [2]. A separate Wikipedia article on the 2026 Pacific typhoon season describes the season as ongoing and says it began with the first named storm, Nokaen, on January 15 [3]. It reports that Tropical Storm Maysak caused flooding in Southern China that resulted in 171 fatalities, 159 of them in Guangxi [3]. It also says Typhoon Dolphin made landfall in China's Zhejiang province on August 9, near Wenzhou [3]. These are historical descriptions of events recorded in the sources. They are not a present-day count of China's landfalls for 2026, and the sources do not give the number of landfalls in China this year.

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