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Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?

Name: How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
End: 2027-06-30T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$20.39K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?

Vol

$20.39K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $20.39K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $20.39K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?	Poly	69%
Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?	Poly	14%
Will exactly 7 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?	Poly	8%
Will exactly 6 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?	Poly	7%
Will exactly 5 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?	Poly	1%
Will fewer than 5 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

69%

Top Probability

$20.39K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026. All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical de

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2027 (299 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.

All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical de

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $20.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.08)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will fewer than 5 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will exactly 5 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will exactly 6 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will exactly 7 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2027): Vol $7.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 69.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld