Dogecoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
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Dogecoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single-event contract from Polymarket titled "Dogecoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET" [1]. The rules say it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-27T00:20:00.000Z [1]. That is the close time in UTC, while the title uses Eastern Time, so readers comparing the two should convert between them. The listed end time is a contract closing time, not a statement about when the outcome will be published.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z and retrieved at 2026-10-26T04:04:12.801Z [1]. The provider reported the market as active with two outcomes: Up at 0.5 and Down at 0.5 [1]. These are prices from the observation time, not current prices, and they are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The sample covers one market from one event, with no partial sampling and no omitted contracts [1]. Because there is only one contract in this sample, there is no cross-platform or cross-contract comparison to make. A different platform's Dogecoin contract with different wording, a different time window, or a different resolution source should not be treated as equivalent, even if its title looks similar.
The snapshot does not include volume, trade history, or order book depth, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants are involved.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stood at 0.5 and 0.5 at the observation time, and it does not indicate whether they have changed since then. It also does not report the Dogecoin price path during the 8:15 to 8:20 PM ET window, and it does not provide any outcome result. Until the contract closes and the listed Chainlink data is evaluated under the stated rules, the resolution is unknown.
References
- Polymarket: Dogecoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This market is a short-window price contract on Dogecoin. It is titled "Dogecoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET" and is listed in the Crypto category on Polymarket [1]. The contract asks whether Dogecoin's price will end the five-minute window higher or lower than where it started. Under the stated rules, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin over that time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink. The rules name the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream as the reference, and they state that only this Chainlink data stream counts, not other sources or spot markets [1]. This means the outcome depends on that specific data feed, so a different exchange price during the same minutes would not decide the result under these rules. The contract's listed end time is 2026-10-27T00:20:00.000Z, which is the close of the 8:15 to 8:20 PM ET window [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers should check the time zone when comparing the two. The provider's saved status for this event was active when the record was taken, but that observation is a historical snapshot and does not describe the market's status at any later time.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink DOGE/USD TWAP over a specific five-minute window finishes at or above the window's starting price [1]. Because it uses an average over the window rather than a single moment's price, a brief spike or dip at the very end would not by itself decide the result. Because the rules tie resolution to one named data stream, the contract is a bet on that feed's measurement, not on Dogecoin's price as quoted everywhere. The listed prices shown for the two outcomes are snapshots of trading at one point in time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities of the outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What price data decides this contract?
The rules specify the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The market states that it is about the price according to that Chainlink data stream, not according to any other sources or spot markets [1].
What counts as an "Up" resolution?
The market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1]. Equal values therefore resolve to "Up."
What happens if the TWAP is below the starting price?
Under the stated rules, the market resolves to "Down" in that case [1].
When does this market end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-27T00:20:00.000Z [1]. This is the close of the 8:15 to 8:20 PM ET window named in the title, and the time zones differ between the two.
Does a listed price show how likely each outcome is?
No. The listed prices are snapshots from one point in time. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of either outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.