GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

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Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

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$0.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

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0.0%avg

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

21 markets tracked

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(21)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	98%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	97%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	95%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	92%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	75%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	67%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	39%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	24%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	11%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	6%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.4% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.9% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.8% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.7% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.3% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	2%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 5.0% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	2%
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

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About This Event

In Jul 2026 If the Consumer Price Index, CPI, increases by more than X in the twelve months ending July 2026, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, then the market resolves to Yes. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government s

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In Jul 2026

If the Consumer Price Index, CPI, increases by more than X in the twelve months ending July 2026, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, then the market resolves to Yes. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government s

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 5.0% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal governm"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 5.0% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.9% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.8% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.7% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.6% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.5% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.4% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.3% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.2% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 67.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 75.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

Volume$0.00

Markets21

21 of 21

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.0% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal governm

KALSHI

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in July 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.1% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal governm

KALSHI

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in July 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.2% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal governm

KALSHI

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 91.5¢No 8.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.3% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal governm

KALSHI

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 75.0¢No 25.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in July 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.4% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal governm

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/6t26qJ" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)"></iframe>

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Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

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Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?

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Events (1)

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

Markets (21)

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in July 2026?

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Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY)

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in July 2026?

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