Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single contract from Polymarket titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET" [1]. According to the saved rules, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The rules name the resolution source as the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream and state that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-26T15:35:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's closing time. The evidence does not show a resolution outcome, so the contract should not be read as settled.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-25T18:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-25T19:42:15Z [1]. These are two different times, and both are earlier than any later reading. The saved prices are therefore a snapshot from the observation time, not a live reading.
At that observation, the saved prices were 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. These are provider-reported prices for this one contract. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Because only one contract appears in the record, there is no comparison with other platforms or other contract wording.
The coverage record lists one market for this event, with no partial sample flagged [1]. Within this event, both outcomes are shown.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stood where they did, and it does not describe any trading activity beyond the quoted prices. It also does not show the Bitcoin price at the start of the window or any TWAP value, so the outcome cannot be inferred from this snapshot. The provider's own sample warning notes that including all saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Since the contract resolves only on the Chainlink stream described in its rules, readers should not compare it with prices from other sources or spot markets.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-window price market on Bitcoin, titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET" and categorized as Crypto [1]. It is listed on Polymarket with two outcomes, "Up" and "Down" [1]. The contract does not ask whether Bitcoin will reach a particular price. It asks how Bitcoin's price during one five-minute window compares with its price at the start of that window [1]. The resolution rule is based on a time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin generated by Chainlink. Under the stated rule, the market resolves to "Up" if that TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the range, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The source says the market uses the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink and specifically excludes other sources and spot markets [1]. A reader should therefore treat the Chainlink stream named in the rules, rather than any exchange quote, as the reference for this contract. The source lists an end time of 2026-10-26T15:35:00Z and a status of active at the time of the provider observation [1]. A listed end time identifies when the contract is scheduled to close under the rules. It does not by itself show that the contract has resolved or what the final outcome was.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's Chainlink TWAP over a specific five-minute window, relative to the price at the window's start [1]. Because it uses an average over the window rather than a single moment, the outcome depends on the path of the price during those five minutes, not only on its endpoints. The contract's rules also limit its scope: only the named Chainlink stream counts, so a different Bitcoin price source could show a different movement without changing this contract's result [1]. The current displayed prices for the two outcomes are dated snapshots from the provider's observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of an "Up" or "Down" result.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What price does this contract compare against?
The contract compares the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the time range in the title with the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which Bitcoin price source determines the outcome?
The rules specify the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream and state that other sources and spot markets are not used [1].
What does Up mean in this contract?
The contract resolves to Up if the TWAP over the window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the window [1].
What does Down mean in this contract?
The contract resolves to Down if the outcome is not Up under the stated rule, which means the TWAP over the window is below the price at the beginning of the window [1].
Does the listed end time mean the contract has resolved?
No. The source lists an end time of 2026-10-26T15:35:00Z and an active status at the time of observation, which shows the scheduled close under the rules rather than a confirmed final result [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.