Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 3PM ET
PM $0
1
1
Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 3PM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary contract, "Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 3PM ET," listed on Polymarket [1]. Its rule states that it "will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is Binance's ETH/USDT pair, and the rule says the market "is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs" [1]. A similarly titled contract on another platform, or one that uses a different exchange, pair, or candle, measures something different and should not be compared directly. The listed end time is "2026-10-15T20:00:00.000Z" [1]. That is the listed close time for this contract, not a confirmed resolution time.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z and retrieved by PredictPedia at 2026-10-15T18:15:21.907Z [1]. The prices below describe the market at the observation time, not at the retrieval time or now.
- Up: 0.495
- Down: 0.505 [1]
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The Down price is slightly higher at the observation time, but the gap is small, and the sample alone does not explain why. The volume figures are not included here, and volume would not indicate liquidity or the number of traders in any case.
The sample covers one provider event with one market and two outcomes. Coverage reports "totalMarkets": 1, "includedMarkets": 1, and "partialSample": false [1]. Because both outcomes are present, no outcome is omitted from this contract. No other platform's prices are included, so no cross-platform comparison or averaging is possible here.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot may have changed by the time you read this. The evidence does not include later prices, the final Binance candle data, or the resolved outcome. The sample warning also notes that the providers "list every possible real-world outcome" is not established [1]. For this binary contract, the saved outcomes are Up and Down, but the evidence does not describe any other listed contracts.
Before relying on this contract's rules, check the current listing and the Binance candle directly.
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 3PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers the Polymarket contract "Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 3PM ET," a market in the crypto category. The contract is tied to a single one-hour price candle rather than to a longer period or a broad outcome. According to the provider's rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that begins at the time and date in the title, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The resolution source is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair. The open and close shown for the relevant 1H candle on that exchange's chart are the values used, and they are used once the data for that candle is finalized [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price on Binance ETH/USDT, not the price on other exchanges or trading pairs [1]. Because of this, the contract's outcome depends only on that one pair's candle. The saved event lists an end time of 2026-10-15T20:00:00.000Z, and the provider status was active when the record was retrieved [1]. The market has two outcomes, "Up" and "Down". At the observation time recorded for this entry, the "Up" price was 0.495 and the "Down" price was 0.505 [1]. These figures are a snapshot from that moment. They are not an executable quote, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. Only one market appears in this saved event, and it is included in full.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether ETH/USDT on Binance closes a single one-hour candle at or above its opening price. It is a narrow, binary question about direction within that candle, and the rules specify which exchange and pair decide the result [1]. Because the outcome is fixed to one pair on one exchange, prices on other venues do not change how the contract resolves [1]. A difference in price between this contract and a similar contract on another platform does not by itself indicate an opportunity, since the two may use different rules, timing, or resolution sources.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle beginning at the time in the title. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which exchange's prices are used?
The resolution source is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT pair. The rules state that prices on other exchanges or trading pairs are not used [1].
When are the open and close values used?
The open and close displayed for the relevant 1H candle on Binance are used once the data for that candle is finalized [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
