Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The event is a set of five Polymarket markets on whether Bo Nix will record at least a listed number of passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. Each market resolves "Yes" if his total equals or exceeds its threshold, which ranges from 2,999.5 to 3,999.5 yards [1]. The rules also state that if Bo Nix does not play in the regular season for any reason, the market resolves "No" [1]. If the season is cancelled, or postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the yardage cannot be determined, the market resolves "50-50" [1].

The rules name official NFL information as the resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The listed end time for all five markets is 2027-01-27T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract closing time, not a date when any football event is scheduled, and the evidence does not establish when the season begins or ends.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T03:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 05:33 UTC the same day [1]. They are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

Within each market, the Yes and No prices sum to 1.00 in the saved data [1]. Across the ladder, the Yes price falls as the threshold rises: 0.805 at 2,999.5 yards, 0.535 at 3,249.5, 0.27 at 3,499.5, 0.255 at 3,749.5, and 0.12 at 3,999.5 [1]. These five contracts are different questions, so their prices should not be averaged or combined into a single estimate. Differences between them reflect different thresholds, not a single outcome measured several ways.

The saved data includes only one provider event, so no cross-platform comparison is possible here.

What remains uncertain

The coverage record shows all five saved markets were included, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The sample warning, however, states that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. The evidence contains no information about trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants, and volume should not be read as either.

The evidence also does not explain why prices are where they are, include any recent news about Bo Nix, or describe how this provider's prices have performed historically. Because the snapshot is from October 16, 2026, later prices may differ, and the record does not show the current quote.

References

1. Polymarket: Pro Football: Bo Nix 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.