Market snapshot: Oct 14, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture

Oscars 2027: Best Live Action Short Film Winner

Name: Oscars 2027: Best Live Action Short Film Winner
End: 2027-03-14T23:59:00.000Z

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Oscars 2027: Best Live Action Short Film Winner

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Will Pale Sun win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Pale Sun win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Poly	36%
Will Meeting Your Maker win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Poly	36%
Will The Birthday Gift win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Poly	26%
Will Magan's Fare win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Poly	26%
Will 32B win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Poly	21%
Will The Man That I Wave At win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Poly	20%
Will Nightfaces win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Poly	18%
Will Spilled Milk win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Poly	17%
Will Mary is Missing win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Poly	11%
Will Agapito win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Poly	10%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

36%

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$0.00

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About This Event

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Live

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Oscars 2027: Best Live Action Short Film Winner
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 14, 2027 (152 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Live

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $15.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will 32B win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Agapito win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will The Birthday Gift win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Magan's Fare win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will The Man That I Wave At win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Mary is Missing win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Meeting Your Maker win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Nightfaces win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Pale Sun win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Spilled Milk win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 14, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETCulture