Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-01T03:00:06.030Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract from the event "Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET" [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The title gives the window in Eastern Time, while the provider lists the end time as 2026-11-01T21:25:00.000Z [1]. Readers should check both times against the rules rather than assume they match.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation is timestamped 2026-11-01T03:00:06.030Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-01T03:34:02.359Z [1]. These are two separate times, and neither is a live feed. The provider status at retrieval was "active" [1].
The recorded outcome prices are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. Read as a snapshot, Up was priced slightly above Down at the observation time. These are not executable quotes, and the prices are not verified probabilities. The gap of 0.010 is small, and it should not be treated as a meaningful edge or as evidence about the likely result.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, and the coverage record marks it as complete for that event: one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. The source notes that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome, but for this binary contract the two outcomes are Up and Down [1]. No other platform is included, so no cross-platform comparison is possible here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show why the prices stood where they did, how many traders were involved, or how much liquidity sat behind them. The saved volume figure is not in the supplied record, so no claim about trading activity can be made. The evidence also does not show the actual outcome. The contract had not resolved at the snapshot, and the snapshot is not a current reading. Anyone checking the market later should consult the provider's current record and the Chainlink stream named in the rules.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T03:00:06.030Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 1, 2026 UTCOverview
This market is a short-window price contract on Polymarket titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET" [1]. It asks whether the price of HYPE/USD over a five-minute window will finish at or above where that window began. The contract is listed under the Crypto category and is tied to a single event on the platform [1]. The contract's outcome depends on a specific data feed rather than on general market prices. According to the provider's rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The stated resolution source is the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules also state that the market concerns the Chainlink data stream only, not other sources or spot exchanges [1]. A reader should therefore treat the outcome as defined by that feed, even if other prices for HYPE move differently during the same minutes. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-11-01T21:25:00.000Z [1]. That date and time appear in the provider's contract information as the listed end time. They describe when the contract is set to close and do not establish when any real-world event occurred or will occur. At the time of the saved snapshot, the single included market showed an Up price of 0.505 and a Down price of 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from the observation time, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of the outcome. The sample includes the only saved market for this event, so no other outcomes are being compared.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink HYPE/USD time-weighted average price over the stated five-minute window ends at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because it uses an average over the window rather than a single moment, the result depends on how the price moved across the full interval as recorded by that feed [1]. The contract is therefore narrow in scope: it does not ask whether HYPE will rise over a longer period, and it does not use exchange prices outside the named data stream [1]. Readers interested in the contract's mechanics should focus on the stated resolution source and the wording of the time range.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-01 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves Up if the Chainlink time-weighted average price of Hyperliquid over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which price feed is used for resolution?
The stated resolution source is the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream. The rules say the market concerns that data stream and not other sources or spot markets [1].
Does a price of 0.505 for Up mean there is a 50.5 percent chance of an Up result?
No. The saved price is a snapshot from the provider's observation time and is not an executable quote or a verified probability [1].
What does the listed end time represent?
The provider lists the end time as 2026-11-01T21:25:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's listed closing time and does not describe any other event.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.