IN-08 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $11.6K
1
10
IN-08 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $11.6K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 20-25% at 40.5%.
Polymarket
- Republican 20-25%40.5%
- Republican 30-35%26%
- Republican 25-30%18.5%
- Republican 15-20%9%
- Republican 40-45%8.7%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $11.6K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 IN-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IN-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract family resolves on the margin of victory in the 2026 IN-08 House election. The margin is "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Party-named options use the Democratic and Republican nominees, and independent candidates do not count as either party [1]. The source states the election "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. That is a scheduled expectation in the rules, not a report that the election has occurred.
Resolution depends on "the official vote count once the count has been made official" [1]. If a recount starts before certification, the market stays open until the recount ends [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. A value that falls exactly on a bracket boundary resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-18T03:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-18T04:07:57Z. The provider lists the end time as 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. Those times describe when the data was collected and when the provider lists the contract to close. They do not show a resolution.
The sample includes 10 of 10 saved markets for this event, and it is not marked as partial [1]. Yes prices in the snapshot are:
- Margin 30% to 35%: 0.25
- Margin 25% to 30%: 0.22
- Margin 20% to 25%: 0.16
- Margin 15% to 20%: 0.14
- Margin 40% to 45%: 0.1285
- Democratic candidate wins: 0.087
- Margin 45% or more: 0.0455
- Margin 5% to 15%: 0.023
- Margin 35% to 40%: 0.011
- Margin 0% to 5%: 0.0095
The Democratic-win contract uses a candidate-winner question, not a margin bracket, so it should not be compared directly with the margin ranges. The sample does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1]. Because of that, the listed prices should not be read as a complete distribution.
What remains uncertain
These prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved data does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not show trading activity or liquidity. The source does not describe the election's current status beyond the expected date.
References
- Polymarket: IN-08 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 18, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers the Polymarket event "IN-08 House Election Margin of Victory," which is tied to the 2026 U.S. House election in Indiana's 8th district. The provider describes the 2026 IN-08 House election as "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. That date comes from the provider's rules and is not confirmed as a formal event announcement in the supplied material. The contracts are bracket markets. Each one asks whether the Republican Party candidate will win by a stated margin range, or whether the Democratic Party candidate will win. The margin is defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates," with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast [1]. Independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1]. The rules include several settlement details. If a reported margin falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. Resolution is based on the official vote count once it is certified by the state electoral authority, with credible reporting allowed only as a supplement [1]. A recount initiated before certification keeps the market open until the recount is complete and the vote is official [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The provider's listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. That timestamp is the contract's closing time and is not the same as the date the votes are counted or certified.
Historical Context
The supplied background is general rather than specific to this race. The Electoral College reference explains how presidential margins are reported in the national system, noting that a candidate must win an absolute majority of electoral votes [2]. A separate 2024 Montana gubernatorial article shows how a state race margin can be described as a percentage point gap, reporting that the winning governor "won by a 20% margin, which was larger than his 13% margin in 2020" [3]. That example concerns a different contest and is included only to show how margins are reported in prior elections.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the gap between the top two candidates' shares of valid votes, not the raw number of votes or the winner alone [1]. Because the bracket structure divides possible margins into ranges, traders can express views on how close or lopsided the race will be. The rules also determine how edge cases, such as boundary values, tied totals, nominee changes, and delayed certification, will be settled [1]. Those details matter as much as the headline topic when reading any market price.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-18 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as the margin of victory in this market?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, calculated against the total valid votes cast [1].
What happens if a margin lands exactly on a bracket boundary?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
Are independent candidates included as options?
No. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party, and the Democratic and Republican options are tied to the nominees of those parties [1].
What happens if results are not final by a certain date?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Virginia's 8th District margin of victory
K 268 contractsLouisiana's 5th District margin of victory
K 25.0K contractsLouisiana's 4th District margin of victory
K 8.3K contractsVirginia's 11th District margin of victory
K 18.0K contractsTennessee's 8th District margin of victory
K 14.5K contractsVirginia's 4th District margin of victory
K 12.0K contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
