GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Unemployment in July

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Unemployment in July

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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max 0.0%

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14 markets tracked

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in July?

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Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in July?	Kalshi	99%
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in July?	Kalshi	99%
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in July?	Kalshi	98%
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in July?	Kalshi	95%
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in July?	Kalshi	84%
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in July?	Kalshi	56%
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in July?	Kalshi	26%
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in July?	Kalshi	12%
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in July?	Kalshi	7%
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.6% in July?	Kalshi	4%
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.9% in July?	Kalshi	1%
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.8% in July?	Kalshi	1%
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.7% in July?	Kalshi	1%
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 5.0% in July?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

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$0.00

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About This Event

In Jul 2026 If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, U-3, reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above X in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Unemployment in July
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In Jul 2026

If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, U-3, reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above X in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 5.0% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 5.0% in July?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.9% in July?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.8% in July?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.7% in July?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.6% in July?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in July?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in July?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in July?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in July?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in July?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in July?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in July?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 98.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in July?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in July?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Unemployment in July

In Jul 2026 If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, U-3, reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above X in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Volume$0.00

Markets14

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KALSHI

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in July?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.0¢No 1.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in July?

If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.8% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in July?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.0¢No 1.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in July?

If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in July?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.0¢No 2.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in July?

If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.9% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in July?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.0¢No 5.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in July?

If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in July?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.0¢No 16.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in July?

If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.1% in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in July?

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Events (1)

Unemployment in July

Markets (14)

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in July?

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in July?

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in July?

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in July?

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in July?

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in July?

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in July?

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in July?

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in July?

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in July?

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Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in July?

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Unemployment in July

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in July?

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in July?

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in July?

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in July?

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in July?

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in July?

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in July?

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in July?

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in July?

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in July?

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