Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T03:00:06.332Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single short-window contract on Polymarket titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET" [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the title's time range is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the provider states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Contracts on other venues or spot exchanges may use different rules, so they should not be compared directly with this one.
The title gives the window in Eastern Time, while the listed end time is 2026-10-30T18:10:00.000Z [1]. Readers should convert between the two when checking the window.
Reading the snapshot
The saved record shows an observation time of 2026-10-30T03:00:06Z and a retrieval time of 2026-10-30T03:58:47Z [1]. The price is a snapshot from the observation time, not a live or executable quote. At that point the saved record listed "Up" at 0.5 and "Down" at 0.5 [1].
Those values are the only prices supplied. They describe how the saved market was quoted at that moment and do not verify a probability that Bitcoin will rise. The record does not include volume, depth, or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows one total market and one included market, with no partial sample [1]. This does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for this window, but the saved event contains only the two binary outcomes above.
The evidence does not show why the prices were at 0.5, nor does it show any price after the observation time. Because the saved snapshot was taken hours before retrieval, it should not be read as the current state of the market. Anyone checking the contract should consult the provider directly and confirm the status and listed end time at that point.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T03:00:06.332Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-window price question about Bitcoin. Its title, Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET, refers to a five-minute window on October 30. The provider's rules say the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over that window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the window, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink. Specifically, the rules point to the BTC/USD TWAP data stream rather than to any other exchange or spot market. The provider states that the market is about the price according to that Chainlink data stream for the BTC/USD pair, and not according to any other sources or spot markets [1]. This means that a price move on another venue would not decide the outcome by itself. The provider lists the market as active, with a listed end time of 2026-10-30T18:10:00 UTC [1]. In the saved record, the market was observed at 2026-10-30T03:00:06 UTC and retrieved at 2026-10-30T03:58:47 UTC [1]. Those times describe when the record was captured. They do not show that the contract has closed or that it has resolved. A listed end time is a rule setting when the contract is scheduled to close, not confirmation that any outcome has occurred. In the saved snapshot, both outcomes, Up and Down, were priced at 0.5 [1]. A price is a snapshot of the market at one moment. It is not an executable quote, and it is not a verified probability of an outcome. Two contracts with different prices are not automatically an opportunity to trade, since the prices may reflect different times, rules, or venues.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Bitcoin's average price across a short window finishes at or above its starting price, using a specific Chainlink data stream as the reference [1]. Because the rules tie resolution to that TWAP feed, the wording of the contract matters as much as the broader market. A reader who wants to understand the outcome should check the stated resolution source and the window rules rather than general Bitcoin price headlines [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which data source is used for resolution?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The provider says the market is not based on other sources or spot markets [1].
When is the contract scheduled to end?
The provider lists an end time of 2026-10-30T18:10:00 UTC [1]. That is the listed end time, and it does not by itself show that the market has closed or resolved [1].
Do the prices in this record show the likely outcome?
No. The record shows both outcomes at 0.5 at the observation time [1]. A price snapshot is not an executable quote or a verified probability, so it should not be read as a forecast [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.