XRP Up or Down - October 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
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XRP Up or Down - October 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair XRP/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T00:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "XRP Up or Down - October 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET" [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP over the title's time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink XRP/USD TWAP data stream. The source states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair XRP/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A different XRP price feed, exchange, or spot market could show a different movement, so readers should not treat other XRP price charts as the measure for this contract. The saved record lists an end time of 2026-10-26T21:15:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved market record was observed at 2026-10-26T00:00:05.974Z and retrieved at 2026-10-26T02:49:30.223Z. The prices below belong to the observation time, not to the retrieval time or to the present.
- Up: 0.505
- Down: 0.495
These prices sum to 1.000 in the snapshot [1]. They are snapshot values, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The saved record also lists an active provider status [1], but that status describes the record as saved, not a live state.
The sample covers one market from one platform. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because only this contract is present, there is no comparison with other outcomes or platforms in this snapshot. Volume is not included in the evidence used here and cannot be read as liquidity or trader count.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show why the Up and Down prices were what they were at observation. It also does not show any price movement after the observation time. Whether XRP's TWAP over the 5:00PM to 5:15PM ET range ends at or above its starting price is not yet known from this record. The saved record does not include a resolution result.
Readers comparing this contract with another XRP contract should check the exact title, time range, and resolution source. Differences in wording or listed close times mean the contracts measure different things, and a price difference between them does not by itself indicate an opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: XRP Up or Down - October 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T00:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window crypto contract on XRP, titled "XRP Up or Down - October 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET". It has two outcomes, Up and Down. Under the contract rules, the market resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink. The rules name the XRP/USD TWAP data stream as the reference, and state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream rather than any other source or spot market [1]. This means the outcome depends on the specific Chainlink series, not on whichever XRP price a reader sees on an exchange. The listed end time is 2026-10-26T21:15:00Z, which corresponds to the close of the 5:15PM ET window named in the title [1]. That date appears in the contract rules as the scheduled end of the market. It is not a separate announced event, and it does not show when the market was actually resolved.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the average XRP/USD price over one fifteen-minute window finishes at or above where that window started, as recorded by the Chainlink TWAP data stream [1]. Because it uses an average rather than a single print, a brief spike or dip at the start or end of the window does not by itself decide the result. Because it uses a single named data stream, readers who want to understand the outcome should check that stream's data rather than general price tickers [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this market resolve to Up?
It resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of XRP over the stated time range, generated by Chainlink, is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What makes this market resolve to Down?
Under the rules, any result other than the Up condition resolves the market to Down. Specifically, the average over the window must fall below the price at the start of the window [1].
Which price source determines the outcome?
The resolution source is the XRP/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The rules say the market is about that stream and not about any other sources or spot markets [1].
Does the listed end time mean the market has already settled?
No. The listed end time of 2026-10-26T21:15:00Z is taken from the contract rules and marks the close of the window. The available evidence does not establish when or how the market was resolved [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.