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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

April Inflation US - Monthly

Name: April Inflation US - Monthly
End: 2026-05-12T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$20.68K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

April Inflation US - Monthly

Vol

$20.68K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $20.68K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $20.68K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April?	Poly	35%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April?	Poly	33%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in April?	Poly	13%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April?	Poly	12%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in April?	Poly	5%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in April?	Poly	3%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% in April?	Poly	2%
Will monthly inflation increase by ≥1.1% in April?	Poly	2%
Will monthly inflation increase by 1.0% in April?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

35%

Top Probability

$20.68K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** April Inflation US - Monthly
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 12, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in April 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urb"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $20.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $14.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.39)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will monthly inflation increase by 0.9% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will monthly inflation increase by 1.0% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will monthly inflation increase by ≥1.1% in April?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 12, 2026): Vol $977
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy