Minnesota House District 37B winner? (2028)
K 101.02 contracts
1
2
Minnesota House District 37B winner? (2028)
K 101.02 contracts
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Democratic party at 97.5%.
Kalshi
- Democratic party97.5%
- Republican party3.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 101.02 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
House District 37B If X wins the 2028 general election for Minnesota House District 37B, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a designated media source declares the winner. Party affiliation is determined by the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot, regardless of subsequent changes. X candidate listed with more than one party's label is affiliated only with the first party listed, and a candidate listed with a state affiliate of a national party is affiliated with that national party. Independent and unaffiliated candidates, and write-in candidates not listed on the official ballot, are affiliated with no party. X candidate declared elected without a vote is affiliated with the party under which the candidate qualified. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-05T06:00:06.203Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The market asks whether a candidate affiliated with a given party wins the 2028 general election for Minnesota House District 37B. The rules state that "If X wins the 2028 general election for Minnesota House District 37B, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Party affiliation follows the ballot label: "Party affiliation is determined by the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot, regardless of subsequent changes" [1]. The rules also address edge cases, such as candidates with more than one party label and candidates declared elected without a vote [1].
The source notes that the market "is eligible for accelerated determination after a designated media source declares the winner" and "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1]. The saved markets list an end date of 2029-11-07 for both contracts [1]. This is a listed close time in the provider data, not an announced date for when the result will be declared.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-11-05T06:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-11-05T06:17:02Z. It describes conditions at that observation time only, and the provider status was "active" [1]. The two Yes contracts were priced at 0.985 for the Democratic Party and 0.025 for the Republican Party [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities.
The two contracts do not sum to 1, and a difference in prices across contracts does not by itself indicate an opportunity. Each contract is a separate question with its own wording, so the figures are not averaged or combined.
The sample covers all saved markets for this event: two of two, with no partial sample flagged [1]. That does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome. The rules themselves mention independent, unaffiliated, and write-in candidates, who are affiliated with no party [1]. The saved data does not price those categories, so no conclusion about them can be drawn from this snapshot.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, how many traders hold positions, or how much liquidity exists. The volume figures in the sample are not reported here, and volume would not indicate liquidity or trader count in any case. No information about candidates, campaigns, or recent developments is included. The evidence also does not establish any historical accuracy of these markets. Readers should check the provider's current page and the official rules before relying on any figure.
References
- Kalshi: Minnesota House District 37B winner? (2028). Provider data observed 2026-11-05T06:00:06.203Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 5, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi contract on the winner of the 2028 general election for Minnesota House District 37B [1]. The contract is a yes or no question about the outcome of that future race. Under its rules, if the named candidate wins the 2028 general election for the district, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The saved market records split this into two contracts: one asks whether the Democratic Party will win the seat, and the other asks whether the Republican Party will win it [1]. The event is listed with a status of active [1]. The contract ties party control to the official ballot. Party affiliation is determined by the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot, and later changes in affiliation do not alter that determination [1]. A candidate listed under more than one party's label is affiliated only with the first party listed. A candidate listed with a state affiliate of a national party is treated as affiliated with that national party. Independent and unaffiliated candidates, and write-in candidates not on the official ballot, are affiliated with no party. A candidate declared elected without a vote is affiliated with the party under which they qualified [1]. The rules also describe how and when the market can close. It is eligible for accelerated determination after a designated media source declares the winner, and it will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The provider record does not list an end time for the event [1]. The contract data also shows an end date of November 7, 2029, but that is a field in the contract record, not an announced date for the election result or for the market's resolution.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which party's candidate will win the 2028 general election for Minnesota House District 37B, as defined by the party labels on the official ballot [1]. Because the rules tie party affiliation to ballot labels, the contract's meaning depends on how candidates are listed rather than on how they describe themselves [1]. The Yes outcome for each party contract resolves only if that party's affiliated candidate wins the seat, and independent or unlabeled candidates are not counted toward either party under these rules [1]. Anyone reading the contract should treat the rules text, rather than the market title alone, as the definition of the event [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-05 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for the Yes outcome to resolve?
If the named candidate wins the 2028 general election for Minnesota House District 37B, the market resolves to Yes [1].
How is a candidate's party decided under these rules?
Party affiliation follows the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot, regardless of later changes. If a candidate is listed under more than one party, only the first party listed counts. Independent, unaffiliated, and unlisted write-in candidates are affiliated with no party [1].
Can the market close before the 2028 general election date?
Yes. The market is eligible for accelerated determination after a designated media source declares the winner, and it will close and expire early if the event occurs [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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