Solana Up or Down - October 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
PM $0
1
1
Solana Up or Down - October 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract is titled "Solana Up or Down - October 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET" and is listed on Polymarket [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The stated resolution source is the SOL/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules specify that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-16T10:45:00.000Z [1]. This is a scheduled close time from the rules. The supplied evidence contains no resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The sample contains one market with two outcomes. At the provider observation time of 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, the "Up" price was 0.505 and the "Down" price was 0.495 [1]. The source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:45:40.736Z, about two and a half hours after the observation, so these figures describe a saved snapshot and not current prices. The recorded status was active [1].
These values are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.000 in this record. The supplied evidence includes no volume, liquidity, or participant counts, so it says nothing about market depth or how many people are trading.
The coverage for this provider event is complete: one of one saved market is included and the partial sample flag is false [1]. The pair therefore represents the full saved field for this event. It does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stand where they do, and it contains no other contracts or platforms for comparison. A differently worded Solana contract could use another window, resolution source, or close time, so any comparison would need to check those terms first. The supplied material also cannot show how prices changed after the retrieval time or what will happen before 2026-10-16T10:45:00.000Z.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window price contract on Polymarket titled "Solana Up or Down - October 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET." The contract asks whether the price of Solana (SOL) will be higher or lower over a five-minute window. Its rules state that it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's SOL/USD TWAP data stream, which the source identifies by its 60-second TWAP stream address [1]. The rules make clear that the contract concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the SOL/USD pair, and not any other data source or spot market [1]. Traders therefore need to read the outcome against that specific feed rather than against a price quoted on a particular exchange. The source lists the event as active, with a listed end time of 2026-10-16T10:45:00Z [1]. That listed time is part of the contract's terms. It is not evidence of when the window was actually observed or resolved.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP over a short window finishes at or above the level at which the window began. Because the comparison uses an average over the window rather than a single instant, the outcome depends on how the price moves across the full five minutes, not only on its final value [1]. The rules also limit the measure to the Chainlink data stream for SOL/USD, so the contract reflects that feed's data and not other sources or spot markets [1]. Its price reflects how the market is valued at the time of a given snapshot, which is not the same as a verified probability of the outcome [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve Up?
The contract resolves to Up if the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What makes it resolve Down?
If the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP over the time range is below the price at the beginning of that range, the contract resolves to Down [1].
Which price source determines the outcome?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream linked in the rules. The rules state that the market concerns that Chainlink data stream and not any other sources or spot markets [1].
Does the contract end at a fixed time?
The source lists an end time of 2026-10-16T10:45:00Z for the event [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
