Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T03:00:06.402Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract asks whether the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid over the time range in its title will be greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. If it is, the market resolves to "Up"; otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market is about the price "according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The title gives the window as "October 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET," and the listed end time is 2026-10-28T18:25:00.000Z [1]. The provider status is recorded as active [1]. The evidence contains no resolution outcome, so this snapshot cannot show how the market settled.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-28T03:00:06.402Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-28T05:10:07.095Z [1]. These timestamps describe a saved record, not live trading, and the observed prices should not be read as the prices now.
At the observation time, the listed prices were 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The coverage record lists one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because the sample contains only this one contract from one platform, there is no cross-platform comparison to draw from. The evidence also does not include volume or trader counts, so the prices cannot be read as liquidity or as a measure of how many participants agree.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show what happened after the observation time, and it does not explain why the prices were where they were. The provider's sample warning states that including all saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. For this binary contract, the two saved outcomes are the ones the record names.
The evidence also does not include the price at the beginning of the TWAP range, which is the value the comparison depends on. Until the resolution data is available, the snapshot should be read only as a record of the listed prices at 03:00 UTC.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T03:00:06.402Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window crypto contract on Polymarket, titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET." It asks whether the price of HYPE/USD over a five-minute window will finish at or above where it started. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. Because the outcome depends on an average over the window compared with the opening price, the result is not simply whether the price was higher at the end than at the start. The resolution source is Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, which the rules identify by name [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the HYPE/USD pair, not any other data source or spot market [1]. Traders should therefore read the outcome against that specific feed, which may differ from prices on other venues. The event record gives a listed end time of 2026-10-28T18:25:00.000Z, which is 2:25 PM ET in the title's time zone [1]. That is the end of the measurement window. Resolution follows the data stream's values for that window, so the listed time should not be read as the moment the result is announced or paid out.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink TWAP for HYPE/USD over the five-minute window from 2:20 PM to 2:25 PM ET is at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. It gives a binary view of short-term direction as defined by one oracle feed. Because the TWAP averages prices across the window, a late move may affect the result differently than it would for a simple end-of-window comparison [1]. The contract's rules also limit the outcome to that feed and pair, so other HYPE prices do not decide it [1]. The event record shows the observed prices at a single moment, 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down [1]. These are snapshot prices from the provider's observation time, not current or executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. The record also shows a volume figure for the event in its source data, but volume does not indicate liquidity or the number of participants.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and Down otherwise [1].
Which price source is used?
The rules name the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and say that other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
When does the measurement window end?
The event record lists an end time of 2026-10-28T18:25:00.000Z, which corresponds to 2:25 PM ET [1].
Do the displayed prices show the current odds?
No. The prices are a snapshot taken at the provider's observation time of 2026-10-28T03:00:06.402Z, so they do not describe current conditions or a tradable quote [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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