Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Houthis enter Aden by...?

Name: Houthis enter Aden by...?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$507.83K

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Markets

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Houthis enter Aden by...?

Vol

$507.83K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $507.83K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $507.83K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	Poly	25%
Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?	Poly	13%
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	Poly	5%
Houthis enter Aden by October 15, 2026?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

25%

Top Probability

$507.83K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. "Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Man

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Houthis enter Aden by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (82 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf.

"Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Man

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $327.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $101.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.23)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $219.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $100.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Houthis enter Aden by October 15, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 1, 2026): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics