Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
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Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T18:00:06.173Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET" [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The source names the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP data stream and states that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-27T13:15:00.000Z [1]. Because the title uses Eastern time and the listed end time uses UTC, readers should compare the two carefully before relying on either. The evidence does not state a separate settlement or resolution timestamp.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation time is 2026-10-26T18:00:06.173Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-26T20:15:28.813Z [1]. The provider showed the market as active at the time of retrieval [1]. This is a record of prices at an earlier moment, not a live view.
The saved prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two outcomes sum to 1.00 in this record. The evidence does not include order book depth, trade history, or volume, so it cannot show how liquid the market was.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record reports one total market and one included market, with no partial sample [1]. Because only one market is present, no comparison across outcomes or platforms is possible from this evidence.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices were set at these levels, how many traders were involved, or whether the prices have changed since the observation. It also does not establish any event outside the contract wording itself.
Anyone comparing this contract with a different Ethereum price contract should check the exact wording, the TWAP source, the time window, and the listed close time. Differences in those terms can mean the contracts measure different things, so a difference in quoted price does not by itself indicate an opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T18:00:06.173Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-term binary market on the direction of Ethereum's price. Its title, Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET, refers to a 15-minute window. The Polymarket event lists two outcomes, Up and Down [1]. The rules define how the outcome is decided. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The comparison therefore depends on an average over the window, not on the price at a single moment, and it is measured against the starting price of the window. The resolution source is the ETH/USD TWAP data stream named in the rules [1]. The rules specify that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink data stream and not according to any other source or spot market [1]. Traders who follow prices on exchanges or other venues should therefore note that a move there does not directly determine the outcome. At the time of the saved record, the provider status was active and the listed end time was 13:15 UTC on October 27, 2026 [1]. A listed end time is part of the contract's rules and is not an announcement of an event. The record does not show a final resolution, so the outcome should be read from the provider's own status rather than assumed from the title.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average of the ETH/USD price, as reported by a specified Chainlink data stream, over a 15-minute window is at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the measure is an average, a short spike near the end of the window does not by itself decide the result, and the starting reference is fixed by the rules rather than by any other price feed [1]. The contract is useful for understanding how short-interval price markets define their reference point and data source. Its listed prices are snapshots and not executable quotes, and the volume shown for a market does not indicate how much liquidity is available.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up?
The market resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of Ethereum from the Chainlink data stream over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
Which price source is used for resolution?
The resolution source is the ETH/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules say the market is not based on any other sources or spot markets [1].
What does the listed end time mean?
The listed end time for this event is 13:15 UTC on October 27, 2026 [1]. This is the time recorded in the contract, not a separate announcement of an event.
Does the title's ET time match the listed end time?
The title gives the window in Eastern Time, and the listed end time is 13:15 UTC on October 27, 2026 [1]. Readers should check the time conversion against the rules when interpreting the window.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.