Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
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Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-31T18:00:05.888Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET" [1]. The source states that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1]
The resolution source is the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP data stream, and the source adds that the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets." [1] A reader should not treat this contract as a general forecast of Ethereum's price. It depends on a specific averaging method and a specific five-minute window.
The listed end time is 2026-11-01T03:20:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers should check how the two correspond before relying on the window.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-31T18:00:05.888Z and retrieved at 2026-10-31T19:17:36.853Z [1]. These are two different times, and neither is the contract's closing time. The provider status at retrieval was "active" [1].
The snapshot shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. A small gap between the two outcomes does not indicate a directional view, and the evidence does not explain why the prices stood where they did.
The sample contains one market from one platform, with all saved markets included and no partial sample [1]. Because the sample is this narrow, nothing here supports a comparison with other platforms or other Ethereum contracts with different wording or close times.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the outcome of this contract, the Ethereum price during the window, or any price movement after the snapshot. Prices may have changed substantially between observation and the listed end time. The sources do not provide trader counts, volume interpretation, or any news context.
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-31T18:00:05.888Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 31, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-window price market on Ethereum. Its title, "Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET", identifies a five-minute window on the evening of October 31 Eastern Time. According to the provider's rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum over that window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The measure is an average, not a single trade or the closing price. The TWAP is generated by Chainlink, and the rules name its ETH/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source [1]. The provider states that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink data stream and not according to other sources or spot markets [1]. A reader therefore needs to understand the Chainlink feed's definition of the average, not simply compare a quoted exchange price at the start and end of the window. The event contains a single market with two outcomes, Up and Down. At the time of the saved snapshot, the provider listed the market as active and gave a listed end time of 2026-11-01T03:20:00Z [1]. A listed end time is the time the provider assigns to the contract. It is not a statement about when the price data were measured or when the outcome was determined. The prices shown with the market are snapshot values from the provider at the observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of either outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the average Ethereum price over a five-minute window, as calculated in the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP data stream, finishes at or above the starting price for that window [1]. Because the rule compares an average against the starting price, the result depends on how the price moves within the window and on the data stream's definition of the average, not only on the endpoints. The rules specify that other sources and spot markets do not determine the outcome [1]. Readers who want to interpret the contract should therefore read the resolution rule itself, rather than relying on general statements about Ethereum prices.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-31 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price data does the market use?
The rules name the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and state that the market is about that stream, not other sources or spot markets [1].
What time window does the contract cover?
The title specifies October 31, 11:15PM to 11:20PM Eastern Time [1]. The provider lists the end time as 2026-11-01T03:20:00Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.