Snapshot observed 2026-10-21T00:00:05.984Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This snapshot covers one Polymarket event, "Lisbon: Andrej Martin vs Svyatoslav Gulin," a tennis match. The main "Completed Match" contract is a Yes/No market, and the rules say the event resolves to "Andrej Martin" or "Svyatoslav Gulin" depending on who advances [1]. Other contracts in the same event cover set winners, total sets, set handicaps, and set game totals, so they measure different outcomes and should not be read as alternative views of the match winner.

The rules also describe several outcomes that differ from a simple winner call. If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or has no determined winner by November 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves 50-50. A walkover also resolves 50-50, while a retirement, default, or disqualification after the match begins resolves to the player who advances [1]. The stated primary resolution source is official ATP Tour information, with a consensus of credible reporting possibly used [1].

The rules list an original scheduled start of October 22, 2026, at 5:00 AM ET [1]. This is a date in the contract text, not confirmation of when the match will be played. The listed end time is October 29, 2026, 09:00 UTC [1], which is when trading is listed to close, not when the match is expected to finish.

Reading the snapshot

The observation time is October 21, 2026, 00:00:05 UTC, and the source was retrieved at 00:21:32 UTC the same day. These times describe this capture only. Prices may have changed since then.

The completed-match Yes contract is priced at 0.52 and the No at 0.48 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, so they should not be treated as verified probabilities. The set winner, set handicap, and total sets contracts are each priced at 0.50 for both sides, and the set game totals are priced 0.495 Over and 0.505 Under [1]. Because these are different contracts with different wording, the small gaps between them should not be read as an arbitrage signal.

The sample is partial. The event has 16 markets in total, and 12 are included [1]. The included markets were selected by highest finite Yes price, then volume. The four omitted markets were not reported, so their prices are unknown. Their absence does not imply they are lower priced. The provider's volume figures are not a measure of liquidity or trader count.

What remains uncertain

This snapshot does not show current prices, the reasons for any price level, or how many traders hold each position. The evidence contains no information about the match's status, weather, player condition, or any news after the observation time. The four omitted markets remain unknown, and the event was not compared with any other platform.

References

1. Polymarket: Lisbon: Andrej Martin vs Svyatoslav Gulin. Provider data observed 2026-10-21T00:00:05.984Z.