Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Ohio's special Senate winner be sworn in on Dec 15?

Total Volume

$4.09K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Ohio's special Senate winner be sworn in on Dec 15?

Vol

$4.09K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $4.09K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.09K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election is sworn in as a U.S. senator on December 15, 2026 before Dec 16, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election is sworn in as a U.S. senator on December 15, 2026 before Dec 16, 2026?	Kalshi	71%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

71%

Top Probability

$4.09K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Dec 16, 2026 If the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election is sworn in as a U.S. senator on December 15, 2026 after Issuance and before Dec 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is h

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Ohio's special Senate winner be sworn in on Dec 15?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Dec 16, 2026

If the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election is sworn in as a U.S. senator on December 15, 2026 after Issuance and before Dec 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is h

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election is sworn in as a U.S. senator on December 15, 2026 after Issuance and before Dec 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election is sworn in as a U.S. senator on December 15, 2026 before Dec 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 23, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 71.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics