Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3PM ET
PM $68.53
1
1
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3PM ET
PM $68.53
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $68.53
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary Polymarket contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3PM ET" [1]. The rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is Binance BTC/USDT, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs" [1]. The open and close for the relevant candle are used "once the data for that candle is finalized" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T20:00:00.000Z [1]. The evidence does not explain how this listed time relates to the 3PM ET wording in the title, so readers comparing it with other contracts should check that relationship themselves.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-28T08:32:18.452Z [1]. The prices therefore describe that earlier observation, not a current quote. The saved prices were Up 0.505 and Down 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices on a 0 to 1 scale that sum to 1.00. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the evidence does not explain why the prices were at these levels.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record reports one total market, one included market, and partialSample set to false [1]. The sample warning states that all saved markets for these events are included, but "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Both outcomes of this binary contract appear in the snapshot. The evidence includes no volume or liquidity figures, so it says nothing about market depth or how many participants are involved.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include any later price, trading volume, or resolution result. It does not describe the cause of the snapshot prices. Because the rules depend on finalized Binance candle data, the evidence does not establish when that data becomes final. Comparing this contract with Bitcoin contracts on other platforms would require checking wording, candle definitions, and listed close times, since these details determine what each contract measures. A price difference between different contracts does not, on this evidence alone, indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T06:00:06.006Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term crypto contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3PM ET," listed on Polymarket [1]. The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price will be higher or lower over one specific one-hour window. According to the provider's rules, the market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date in the title. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution data comes from Binance, specifically its BTC/USDT trading pair. The rules state that the close and open shown for the relevant one-hour candle will be used once that candle's data is finalized [1]. The rules also say the market concerns the price on Binance BTC/USDT, not the price on other exchanges or trading pairs [1]. A contract on this structure therefore depends on one venue's data, so a move visible on another exchange would not by itself determine the outcome. The provider record lists an end time of 2026-10-28T20:00:00.000Z [1]. That is the listed contract closing time. It is separate from the moment the outcome is resolved, which depends on when the Binance candle data is finalized [1]. The contract's price is a market snapshot from a provider record. It is not a verified probability, and it does not show how much trading took place or how many people participated.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over a single one-hour window on one exchange. Under the rules, "Up" means the close is greater than or equal to the open for that candle, and "Down" means otherwise [1]. Because the window is defined by a specific candle and a specific venue, the contract's meaning is narrow. It reflects how the BTC/USDT price on Binance compares across that hour, and nothing broader about Bitcoin's overall trend or prices elsewhere [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as an "Up" result?
The market resolves to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins at the time and date in the title [1]. An equal open and close also resolves to "Up" under this wording [1].
Which exchange determines the outcome?
The resolution source is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair. The rules state that the market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not other exchanges or trading pairs [1].
When does the contract close?
The provider record lists an end time of 2026-10-28T20:00:00.000Z [1]. The rules also say resolution uses the candle data once it is finalized [1], so the closing time and the resolution moment are not necessarily the same.
Does the displayed price show the chance that Bitcoin goes up?
The record shows prices for the two outcomes at the time it was observed [1]. These are market snapshots rather than executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the provider record does not establish a probability on its own [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Bitcoin above ___ on October 28, 9AM ET?
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9AM ET
PM $407.28Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8AM ET
PM $307.36Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11PM ET
PM $188.17Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
PM $54Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
PM $13.77Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.