GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

SpaceX Starship 13th launch?

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SpaceX Starship 13th launch?

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5 markets tracked

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 16, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 16, 2026?	Kalshi	95%
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 31, 2026?	Kalshi	94%
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 16, 2026?	Kalshi	93%
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026?	Kalshi	77%
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026?	Kalshi	33%

AI Analysis

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95%

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SpaceX Starship (13th launch) If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 13 before X Y 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** SpaceX Starship 13th launch?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** SpaceX Starship (13th launch)

If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 13 before X Y 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 13 before September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b. Early close condition"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 77.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 7, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 16, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 23, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

SpaceX Starship 13th launch?

Volume$0.00

Markets5

5 of 5

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KALSHI

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHITech

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 16, 2026?

If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 13 before September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b. Early close condition

KALSHI

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.0¢No 6.0¢

KALSHITech

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 31, 2026?

If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 13 before September 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b. Early close condition

KALSHI

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHITech

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 16, 2026?

If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 13 before August 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b. Early close condition: I

KALSHI

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.0¢No 23.0¢

KALSHITech

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026?

If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 13 before August 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b. Early close condition: I

KALSHI

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 33.0¢No 67.0¢

KALSHITech

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026?

If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 13 before July 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b. Early close condition: If

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/AX6u3F" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="SpaceX Starship 13th launch?"></iframe>

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SpaceX Starship 13th launch?

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Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 16, 2026?

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Events (1)

SpaceX Starship 13th launch?

Markets (5)

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 16, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 16, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 31, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 31, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 16, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 16, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 16, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

SpaceX Starship 13th launch?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 16, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 16, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 31, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 31, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 16, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 16, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026?

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026?

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