Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

When will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL?

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When will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL?

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4 markets tracked

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2028?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2028?	Kalshi	72%
Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	69%
Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	41%
Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	11%

AI Analysis

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72%

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Keystone XL revival If South Bow officially announces a decision to build Keystone XL before X 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Only a decision to proceed with construction of South Bow's Prairie Connector project resolves this market. The original Gulf Coast route of Keystone XL is out of scope, and a decision to cancel, shelve or further defer the project does not resolve any market to Yes. Permits, shipper commitments, open-season results and cost estimates do not on their own resol

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Keystone XL revival

If South Bow officially announces a decision to build Keystone XL before X 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Only a decision to proceed with construction of South Bow's Prairie Connector project resolves this market. The original Gulf Coast route of Keystone XL is out of scope, and a decision to cancel, shelve or further defer the project does not resolve any market to Yes. Permits, shipper commitments, open-season results and cost estimates do not on their own resol

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If South Bow officially announces a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only a decision to proceed with construction of South Bow's Prairie Connector project resolves this market. The original Gulf Coast route of Keystone XL is out of s"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 69.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

When will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL?

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KALSHI

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 72.0¢No 28.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2028?

If South Bow officially announces a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only a decision to proceed with construction of South Bow's Prairie Connector project resolves this market. The original Gulf Coast route of Keystone XL is out of s

KALSHI

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 69.0¢No 31.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2028?

If South Bow officially announces a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only a decision to proceed with construction of South Bow's Prairie Connector project resolves this market. The original Gulf Coast route of Keystone XL is out of s

KALSHI

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 41.0¢No 59.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2027?

If South Bow officially announces a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only a decision to proceed with construction of South Bow's Prairie Connector project resolves this market. The original Gulf Coast route of Keystone XL is out of s

KALSHI

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2027?

If South Bow officially announces a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only a decision to proceed with construction of South Bow's Prairie Connector project resolves this market. The original Gulf Coast route of Keystone XL is out of s

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When will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL?

When will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL?

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Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2028?

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Events (1)

When will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL?

Markets (4)

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2028?

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2028?

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2028?

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2028?

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2027?

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2027?

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2027?

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2027?

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Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL?

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2028?

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2028?

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2028?

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2028?

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2027?

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jul 1, 2027?

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2027?

Will South Bow announce a decision to build Keystone XL before Jan 1, 2027?

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