How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (10/18-10/24)
K 13.3K contracts
1
4
How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (10/18-10/24)
K 13.3K contracts
1
4
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 13.3K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
4
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
10/18-10/24 If Donald Trump has sent at least X nominations to the U.S. Senate from Oct 18, 2026 through Oct 24, 2026, as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved The market solely resolves to the publication dates visibly displayed on the "Presidential Actions" tab at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 25, 2026. The week runs from Oct 18, 2026 through Oct 24, 2026. Payout criteria If a person receives multiple qualifying nominations within the period, they will each count separately. For example, Trump's March 4 nomination of Kevin Warsh is considered two nominations.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
These contracts ask whether Donald Trump will send at least a set number of presidential nominations to the U.S. Senate during the week of October 18 to October 24, 2026 [1]. The rules say that if he "has sent at least X nominations to the U.S. Senate from Oct 18, 2026 through Oct 24, 2026, as checked on the "Presidential Actions" page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Resolution depends on the publication dates shown on that page at that check time, not on the date the provider lists as the market's end [1]. The rules also state that "If a person receives multiple qualifying nominations within the period, they will each count separately" [1].
The saved event includes four markets with thresholds of at least 1, 10, 20, and 40 nominations [1]. Each is a separate yes or no contract, so they should not be read as one distribution.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-19T03:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T05:26:59Z [1]. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The saved Yes prices were 0.035 for at least 1 nomination, 0.025 for at least 10, and 0.015 for both at least 20 and at least 40 [1]. The higher thresholds had lower Yes prices in this snapshot. Because these are separate contracts, the prices should not be added, averaged, or compared as if they described one outcome field.
The provider lists the endDate as 2027-01-23T14:00:00.000Z for all four markets [1]. That date is not the resolution check time, which the rules set as 10:00 AM ET on October 25, 2026 [1]. The excerpt also states "Listed end time: not supplied," so the listed end time should be treated with caution [1].
Volume is not supplied in the evidence, and nothing here indicates liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The coverage record states that all four saved markets were included, with no partial sample [1]. The provider's sample warning also says this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Only the thresholds shown here are covered.
The evidence does not explain why prices are at these levels, and it contains no recent news about nominations. Whether these prices will change before the check time is unknown. A price difference between this contract and another platform's contract is not an arbitrage opportunity unless the rules match exactly, and no comparison contract is supplied here.
References
- Kalshi: How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (10/18-10/24). Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This market is one of several weekly contracts on the number of presidential nominations that Donald Trump sends to the U.S. Senate. The event covers the week of October 18 through October 24, 2026. Its rules state that a Yes resolution requires at least a given number of nominations sent to the Senate during that window, as checked on the "Presidential Actions" page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on October 25, 2026 [1]. The rules also say the market resolves based on the publication dates visibly displayed on that tab at that check time [1]. The provider's listed event data was observed on October 19, 2026 at 03:00 UTC, and the market was marked active at that time [1]. The contract therefore depends on what the official page shows at the stated check time, not on any later reporting. The event is a threshold series. Four contracts ask whether at least 1, 10, 20, and 40 nominations will be sent in the same week [1]. Each contract is a separate yes or no question. In the saved snapshot, the Yes prices were 0.035 for at least 1, 0.025 for at least 10, and 0.015 for both at least 20 and at least 40 [1]. These figures are snapshot prices from a single observation, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved sample includes all four markets for this event, so no thresholds are omitted from this event's set, although the provider notes that this does not prove every possible real-world outcome is listed [1].
Historical Context
The second presidency of Donald Trump began with his inauguration as the 47th president on January 20, 2025 [2]. He had previously served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021 [2][3]. According to the retrieved Wikipedia excerpt, he lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden and won the 2024 election against Kamala Harris [2]. The same excerpt states that Republicans hold simple majorities in the House and Senate, which it describes as a federal government trifecta [2]. Those statements come from a retrieved encyclopedia excerpt and do not themselves verify any current event on the date of this article.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a count of presidential nominations sent to the Senate during a single week, as shown on the official Presidential Actions page [1]. Because the resolution source is a specific public web page checked at a specific time, the result depends on what is displayed then, rather than on press coverage or the number of nominations later reported elsewhere [1]. The rules also say that a person who receives multiple qualifying nominations within the period counts each nomination separately, and the rules give a March 4 nomination of Kevin Warsh as an example of one person counting as two nominations [1]. This means the total count can be higher than the number of distinct nominees. The listed end date for each market is January 23, 2027 [1]. That date appears in the provider's market data and should not be read as the resolution check, which the rules place at 10:00 AM ET on October 25, 2026 [1]. The Yes prices show how the market valued each threshold at the observation time. They are not a measure of how likely a nomination count will be, and differences between prices should not be read as an arbitrage opportunity without separate evidence about the contracts.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for the at least 10 contract to resolve Yes?
The contract resolves Yes if Trump has sent at least 10 nominations to the U.S. Senate from October 18, 2026 through October 24, 2026, as checked on the Presidential Actions page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on October 25, 2026 [1].
How does the source decide which date a nomination falls in?
The rules say the market resolves to the publication dates visibly displayed on the Presidential Actions tab at the stated check time [1]. Nominations are therefore assigned by the dates shown on that page rather than by other reporting [1].
Are multiple nominations for the same person counted separately?
Yes. The rules say that if a person receives multiple qualifying nominations within the period, each one counts separately, and they give the March 4 nomination of Kevin Warsh as an example of two nominations [1].
Does a Yes price of 0.025 mean a 2.5 percent chance of resolution?
Not from this evidence. The prices are snapshots from the provider observation and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
