Bundesliga: Team Points
PM $0 · K 66.29 contracts
2
90
Bundesliga: Team Points
PM $0 · K 66.29 contracts
2
90
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 24, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, Frankfurt: 45+ Points is priced at 50% on Polymarket and 47.5% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frankfurt: 45+ PointsSame question, fine print differs | 50% | 47.5% | 2.5 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0 · K 66.29 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
90
Saved contracts
1
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
2026-27 Season If Stuttgart reaches at least X points in the 2026-27 Bundesliga season, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on the points awarded to Stuttgart in the 2026-27 Bundesliga season standings. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after the event occurs or the season ends.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event "Bundesliga: Team Points" covers points for the 2026-27 season. Each contract asks whether a named club reaches a stated points total. The excerpt says that for Stuttgart, "If Stuttgart reaches at least X points in the 2026-27 Bundesliga season, then the market resolves to Yes," and that resolution is "based on the points awarded to Stuttgart in the 2026-27 Bundesliga season standings" [1]. Contracts for other clubs follow the same structure with different thresholds. The rules also state that the market "will close and expire after the event occurs or the season ends" [1]. The included Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Stuttgart, Union Berlin, and Hoffenheim contracts all list an end date of 2027-06-06T02:00:00.000Z, but the provider status line reads "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. This is a date in the contract data, not an announced event, and the two fields should be read together rather than treated as a confirmed closing time.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-19T03:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-19T05:25:23Z. These values describe that moment only. They are not executable quotes and are not verified probabilities.
Within the sample, the Dortmund 65+ contract has a Yes price of 0.785, while the Bayern Munich 85+ contract is at 0.495. The Stuttgart contracts at 55+, 60+, 65+, and 70+ all show a Yes price of 0.495. Equal prices across different thresholds are a fact of the snapshot, and the data does not explain them. Each contract should be read on its own wording, since a 65+ contract for one club and an 85+ contract for another are not comparable outcomes.
The sample is partial. The event has 72 markets, and only 12 are included [1]. Markets were selected by Yes price, highest first, so omitted contracts are not shown and should not be assumed to be priced lower. Volume is not evidence of liquidity or trader count, and the excerpt provides no such figures.
What remains uncertain
The record does not show current prices, the reasons for any price movement, or how many traders hold each position. It does not confirm the closing time, since the listed end time is both supplied as a date and described as not supplied. The partial sample means the full field of outcomes is unknown. Differences in price between contracts should not be read as arbitrage opportunities.
References
- Kalshi: Bundesliga: Team Points. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
The Bundesliga is a professional association football league in Germany and the highest level of the German football league system. It comprises 18 teams and operates a system of promotion and relegation with the 2. Bundesliga [2]. Seasons run from August to May, and games are played on Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays, with a focus on Saturdays [2]. The Kalshi event titled "Bundesliga: Team Points" covers the 2026-27 season. Its contract rules state that if Stuttgart reaches at least X points in the 2026-27 Bundesliga season, the market resolves to Yes. Resolution is based on the points awarded to Stuttgart in the 2026-27 season standings [1]. Each threshold therefore works as a separate yes or no question about one team's final points total. The event page states that the market will close and expire after the event occurs or the season ends [1]. The rules state that the event is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or officially connected to the governing league, and that trademarks belong to their respective owners [1]. The market list in the saved snapshot includes thresholds for several clubs, including Dortmund at 65 or more points, Bayern Munich at 85 or more points, Stuttgart at thresholds from 55 to 70 points, Union Berlin at thresholds from 35 to 50 points, and Hoffenheim at 60 and 65 points [1]. The sample includes 12 of 72 markets in the event, selected by highest Yes price, so it does not show the full set of thresholds [1]. Several Stuttgart, Union Berlin and Hoffenheim contracts show the same Yes price of 0.495 in that snapshot, which reflects the recorded values only and does not indicate how those contracts compare on any other basis [1]. A Yes price near 0.785 for Dortmund reaching 65 points means the snapshot recorded that value for that contract at the observation time [1]. A price is a recorded snapshot, not an executable quote, and not a verified probability of the outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single number: the points Stuttgart is awarded in the 2026-27 Bundesliga standings [1]. Because the rules tie resolution to the official season standings, the outcome depends on the league table at the end of the season rather than on any single match result [1]. The threshold structure means that traders can express views on different point levels for the same team, and the event lists several such thresholds for multiple clubs [1]. The league context matters for reading these thresholds: the Bundesliga has 18 teams, and its season runs from August to May, so the contract covers a full league campaign [2].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Stuttgart points contract resolve on?
The contract resolves to Yes if Stuttgart reaches at least the stated number of points in the 2026-27 Bundesliga season. Resolution is based on the points awarded to Stuttgart in the 2026-27 season standings [1].
When does the market close?
The event states that the market will close and expire after the event occurs or the season ends. The listed end time is not supplied in the event information [1].
Is the market connected to the Bundesliga organisation?
The event states that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing league [1].
How long does a Bundesliga season run?
Seasons run from August to May, and games are played mainly on Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays, with a focus on Saturdays [2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
1
Same-question pairs
1
Largest saved gap: 2.5 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
