Snapshot observed 2026-11-03T03:00:05.814Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Kalshi event asks about the first quarter only. Its excerpt states that "If X wins the 1st quarter of the Philadelphia vs Detroit Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. It also specifies that "Only points scored during the 1st quarter of play count towards this market" [1]. Three separate contracts appear in the snapshot: Detroit wins the 1st quarter, Philadelphia wins the 1st quarter, and a 1st quarter tie. Each has its own Yes and No prices.

The excerpt notes that the market "will close and expire after a winner is declared" [1]. It also says "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. The markets carry an end date of 2026-11-07T00:00:00.000Z, but that field is a platform data point and is not confirmed as a resolution or event date by the supplied excerpt. Because the wording refers to a game "originally scheduled" for November 4, 2026, readers should not assume from the contract text alone when, or whether, the game was played.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these values at 2026-11-03T03:00:05.814Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-03T04:14:16.091Z [1]. These are historical snapshot values from earlier on that day, not live or executable quotes. The Yes prices were 0.31 for Detroit, 0.29 for Philadelphia, and 0.215 for a tie [1]. These are quoted prices in the saved data, not verified probabilities. The three Yes prices are not adjusted to sum to one in this snapshot. Because the three contracts resolve on different outcomes, their prices should be read separately. Differences between them are not an arbitrage signal.

The sample covers all three markets from this single Kalshi event, with no partial sampling flagged [1]. The source notes that the markets were ordered by Yes price, so Detroit appears first and the tie appears last. This ordering reflects the saved data only. The volume data does not indicate liquidity or the number of participants, and no comparison with other platforms is supplied.

What remains uncertain

The supplied evidence does not explain why prices took the values they did, and it does not report news, trader counts, or any forecasting track record. The sample warning states that the saved markets "do not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The excerpt also does not confirm a listed end time for the event, nor the game's actual status or outcome. Readers should check the current provider page before relying on any price.

References

1. Kalshi: Philadelphia vs Detroit: 1st Quarter Winner. Provider data observed 2026-11-03T03:00:05.814Z.