Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-02T00:00:06.223Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a Polymarket event titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET" [1]. Its rules say it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A contract on a different venue, a spot exchange price, or a different averaging method could resolve differently, so the wording matters more than the market title alone.
The saved record lists an end time of 2026-11-02T04:35:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved market has two outcomes. "Up" is priced at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from the provider record, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.00 in this record, but a reader should not treat either number as a forecast.
The observation time was 2026-11-02T00:00:06.223Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-02T02:54:46.041Z [1]. Those times describe when the record was saved, not the current price. The saved status is "active" [1], but that describes the record at retrieval, not live trading now.
Coverage is limited to this single market. The record shows one market included out of one total, with no partial sample [1]. Because only one contract is in the sample, there is no cross-contract comparison to make. The sample warning also states that the saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1], which is not an issue for a two-outcome binary contract but is worth noting for any broader comparison.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include the price history of HYPE/USD, the reason either side is priced where it is, trading volume, or the number of participants. It also does not show the actual TWAP or the starting price for the window, so the outcome cannot be determined from this material.
Readers comparing this contract with others should check each contract's exact resolution source, averaging method, time window, and listed close time before comparing prices. Differences in wording can mean different events even when titles look similar.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 1, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-02T00:00:06.223Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 2, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term crypto contract listed on Polymarket. It asks whether the price of HYPE/USD, measured by a Chainlink time-weighted average price (TWAP), will finish its five-minute window at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. The title gives the window as 11:30 PM to 11:35 PM ET on November 1, and the listed end time is 2026-11-02T04:35:00Z, which is 4:35 AM UTC on November 2 [1]. The contract's rules are simple. It resolves to "Up" if the TWAP over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. Because the outcome depends on a time-weighted average rather than a single trade, the result reflects the average level of the asset across the window compared with its starting level, not simply where the price happened to be at the final moment [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, identified in the rules as a 60-second stream [1]. The rules specify that only this Chainlink feed governs the outcome. Other sources and spot markets do not determine the result, even if they show different prices for HYPE [1]. The recorded market snapshot, observed at 2026-11-02T00:00:06Z, showed the Up outcome at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are prices recorded at that observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. The event was listed as active in the provider record [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether HYPE/USD, as reported by one specific Chainlink TWAP stream, rises or holds over a five-minute window relative to where that window began [1]. Its value lies in showing how the rules translate a short price path into a binary result. Readers should separate three times: the observation time of the recorded prices, the retrieval time of the source, and the listed end time when the window closes [1]. The contract's own rules, not any later reading of prices, determine how it resolves [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-02 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an Up result mean for this contract?
An Up result means the TWAP of HYPE/USD over the 11:30 PM to 11:35 PM ET window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window, as measured by the Chainlink data stream named in the rules [1].
What determines the resolution of this market?
The resolution source is the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream. The rules state that other sources or spot markets are not used to decide the outcome [1].
When does this contract's window end?
The listed end time is 2026-11-02T04:35:00Z, which corresponds to the close of the 11:35 PM ET window on November 1 [1].
Do the displayed prices show the chance that the outcome will happen?
The recorded prices were 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down at the observation time [1]. They are snapshots from that time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.