WI-05 House Election Winner
PM $109.1K
1
2
WI-05 House Election Winner
PM $109.1K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Scott Fitzgerald (R) at 96.5%.
Polymarket
- Scott Fitzgerald (R)96.5%
- Andrew Beck (D)2.9%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $109.1K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers the Polymarket event "WI-05 House Election Winner." According to the rules excerpt, the market "will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections," and the midterm elections "will take place on November 3, 2026" [1]. The party is determined by a candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation when the House elections are conclusively called. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican party is assigned a party based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus [1].
Resolution uses "a consensus of credible reporting," and if there is ambiguity, it resolves "solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission" [1]. Readers comparing this with other platforms should check each contract's wording, since resolution sources and close times can differ.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T21:09:49.426Z [1]. These are snapshot times, not live quotes. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, which is the contract's closing time and not a confirmed result [1].
Two contracts were included. The Republican Party contract shows a Yes price of 0.9435 and a No price of 0.0565. The Democratic Party contract shows a Yes price of 0.023 and a No price of 0.977 [1]. The sample includes all two saved markets for this event, and the provider status was active [1]. Because the two Yes prices sum to 0.9665 rather than 1, the snapshot alone does not show a complete two-outcome distribution. Prices are snapshot values and not verified probabilities or executable quotes, so they should not be treated as a forecast of the result.
The sample ordering ranks markets by Yes price, and the saved data does not include volume figures for this comparison [1]. Volume is not a measure of liquidity or of how many traders participated, so this snapshot cannot support claims about either.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not establish how many participants hold any position. No other platform's contract for this seat appears in the supplied evidence, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The sample warning states that the saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Since this data was observed on October 15, 2026, readers should check the provider for later prices before drawing any conclusions about current conditions.
References
- Polymarket: WI-05 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers the WI-05 House Election Winner market on Polymarket, which is grouped under the politics category. The contract asks which party will win the WI-05 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections, and the election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1]. The market is organized as one event with two contracts: one asks whether the Republican Party wins the seat, and the other asks whether the Democratic Party does [1]. Because the contracts are party-based rather than candidate-based, the question is answered by the party affiliation of whoever wins, not by a named individual [1]. The rules describe how a party is assigned. A candidate's party is determined by the ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources [1]. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either major party is assigned to a party based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at that same point [1]. The rules also set out how the outcome is confirmed. Resolution follows the result indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, the market resolves solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1]. The provider lists an end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC [1]. That is the listed end time in the contract, not an announced date for when the seat will be called or when the market will close in practice. The Wisconsin governor's race is a separate contest. Reporting in the supplied sources says it is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany as the party nominees [2]. That race is not the subject of this contract, and the sources do not connect it to the WI-05 House seat.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which major party will hold the WI-05 U.S. House seat after the 2026 midterm elections, as defined by the party affiliation rules and resolution sources described in the market terms [1]. Its value comes from the clarity of those rules: party assignment depends on affiliation at a specific point in time, and independents or unaffiliated candidates are mapped to a party by their stated caucus intent [1]. Anyone reading a price for this contract should understand that it reflects a market snapshot, not a verified probability of the outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the WI-05 contract ask?
It asks whether the Republican Party or the Democratic Party will win the WI-05 seat in the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections, with the event split into a Republican contract and a Democratic contract [1].
How is a candidate's party decided for this market?
The party is based on the candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time the House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed major party affiliation is assigned to the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with [1].
How will the market be resolved?
Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, it resolves solely on official results reported by the U.S. government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1].
When is the election?
The midterm elections are scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026 [1].
Does this contract cover the Wisconsin governor's race?
No. The governor's race is described separately in the supplied background as scheduled for November 3, 2026 [2], but this contract concerns the WI-05 U.S. House seat [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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