ETH price range on Oct 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
K 98.8K contracts
1
40
ETH price range on Oct 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
K 98.8K contracts
1
40
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 98.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
40
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
On Oct 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index, ERTI, before 5 PM EDT is X Y at 5 PM EDT on Oct 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index, RTI. At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event resolves on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index before 5 PM EDT on October 15, 2026 [1]. The source states that "the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index, RTI," and that checking a source such as Google or Coinbase may help guide a decision but does not set the resolution value [1]. Each price bracket is a separate contract with its own Yes and No prices, covering a different range for that averaged value.
The platform's listed endDate for these markets is 2026-10-22T21:00:00.000Z, while the source excerpt says the listed end time is not supplied [1]. The contract text ties measurement to 5 PM EDT on October 15, so the listed date should not be read as the measurement time. The record does not explain the difference.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 16:13:13 UTC on October 15, 2026, and the source was retrieved at 17:11:20 UTC [1]. These prices describe that earlier snapshot and are not current quotes.
Among the twelve included brackets, the highest Yes price is 0.56 for $2,420 to 2,459.99, with No at 0.44 [1]. The $2,460 to 2,499.99 bracket shows Yes at 0.205, and the $2,380 to 2,419.99 bracket shows Yes at 0.185 [1]. Most of the other included brackets show Yes at 0.015 or 0.025 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The record contains no volume or liquidity figures that would support further interpretation.
Coverage is partial. Twelve of forty markets in this provider event were included, selected by Yes price and then volume [1]. The omitted brackets were not included in the sample, so they should not be read as priced lower. No rankings should be combined with other events or providers.
What remains uncertain
The record does not explain why prices stood where they did, how many traders took each side, or whether any news affected them. It also does not contain the ERTI value for the measurement window, so this snapshot cannot indicate how any bracket resolved. Whether trading remained open after retrieval is not established by the evidence. Differing prices across brackets do not by themselves indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Kalshi: ETH price range on Oct 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
Kalshi lists an event titled "ETH price range on Oct 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT?" in the Crypto category [1]. The rules describe a yes outcome if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) before 5 PM EDT falls within the stated range at 5 PM EDT on Oct 15, 2026 [1]. In the excerpt, the range appears as a placeholder ("X Y"), and each individual market supplies its own price band in its title. The settlement method is specific. The rules say that at the last minute before expiration, 60 Real Time Index prices are collected, and the official and final value is the average of those prices [1]. The rules also state that the price used is CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index, not a price from a general website or exchange, although checking such sources may help inform a decision [1]. The market records in this snapshot were observed at 16:13 UTC on October 15, 2026, and the source was retrieved at 17:11 UTC the same day [1]. These are provider observation and retrieval times. They are not the contract's closing time or its resolution. When captured, the event status was active [1]. The market records list an end date of October 22, 2026 at 21:00 UTC, while the rules refer to a measurement at 5 PM EDT on October 15. The supplied material does not explain that difference, so it should not be read as a settled timeline.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the average of the final minute of Ethereum Real-Time Index readings before 5 PM EDT on October 15, 2026 lands inside a given price band [1]. Each band is a separate contract. The averaging of sixty collected prices is the rule that determines the official value [1]. Because the rules name a specific index rather than any single exchange price, a reader comparing this market with a quote from another venue should check the index definition first [1]. In the included sample, the $2,420 to $2,459.99 band shows a Yes price of 0.56 and a No price of 0.44, and the $2,460 to $2,499.99 band shows a Yes price of 0.205 [1]. Several other included bands are priced at or near 0.015 to 0.185 for Yes [1]. These are snapshot prices from the observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The sample includes 12 of the 40 markets in this event, so the prices shown do not describe the full set of bands, and no conclusion should be drawn about bands that were not included.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Which price determines whether this market resolves Yes?
The rules name CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index, and they state that the final value is based on that index rather than on a general website or exchange price [1].
How is the final value calculated?
The rules say that at the last minute before expiration, 60 Real Time Index prices are collected, and the official and final value is the average of those prices [1]. The rules describe the reference as a simple average of the sixty seconds of ERTI before 5 PM EDT [1].
Can I use a Coinbase or Google price to judge this market?
The rules say that checking a source such as Google or Coinbase may help guide a decision, but the price used to determine the market is based on the CF Benchmarks index [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
