GA-12 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
PM $12.3K
1
8
GA-12 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
PM $12.3K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 5-10% at 28.5%.
Polymarket
- Republican 5-10%28.5%
- Republican 10-15%28%
- Republican 15-20%15.5%
- Republican 0-5%8.5%
- Republican 20-25%2.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $12.3K
Reported volume · provider units
8
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0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The first round of the 2026 GA-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 GA-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks how large the margin of victory will be in the first round of the 2026 GA-12 House election. The rules define margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Because the measure uses absolute differences, a bracket on either the Republican or Democratic side reflects only the size of the gap, not which party finished first.
The rules also set several resolution details. If a reported value "falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. Ties follow a separate tiebreak procedure. Resolution is based on the official count once it is certified, and a recount delays the outcome until the vote is official [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
The rules state that the first round "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. That is a description in the contract text, not confirmation of the election date from a separate source.
Reading the snapshot
The saved Polymarket data was observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T23:42:43.639Z [1]. These are snapshot times. They do not show live prices now. Each listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1], which is the provider's listed close time. The contract's actual resolution depends on certification, not on that listed time.
The sample includes eight Republican and Democratic margin brackets, with all eight included and no partial sample flag [1]. The brackets are not mutually exclusive in a simple way across parties, and the Yes prices do not sum to one. For example, the Republican 0% to 5% Yes price is 0.205, the Republican 5% to 10% Yes price is 0.355, and the Democratic 0% to 5% Yes price is 0.0295 [1]. Quoted prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as the likelihood of each outcome.
The sample also does not include an "Other" contract. The provider's sample warning notes that these saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Any missing outcome should not be assumed to have a lower price.
What remains uncertain
This evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, and it does not show trading activity or the number of participants. Because all markets come from one provider event, the figures should not be combined with contracts from other platforms or other events. Differences in wording, tiebreak rules, or close times could change how similar-looking contracts resolve.
References
- Polymarket: GA-12 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round). Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This Polymarket contract, titled GA-12 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round), is tied to the first round of the 2026 U.S. House election in Georgia's 12th district. The first round is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The contract does not ask who wins. It asks how large the gap is between the top two candidates. Under the contract's definition, the margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The result is therefore a percentage-point gap, not a raw vote difference. The contract is organized into brackets. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not count toward either party [1]. The saved sample for this event includes brackets for both parties, such as gaps of 0% to 5%, 5% to 10%, 10% to 15%, 15% to 20%, 20% to 25%, and 25% or more, along with a Democratic bracket for 5% or more [1]. Traders should read each bracket's wording carefully, since the same gap range can appear under different party labels. The contract also sets out several edge rules. If a reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves using the party's replacement nominee [1]. Ties are handled by a separate rule that depends on whether the tied candidates are listed in the contract and on ballot-listed last names [1]. Resolution depends on the official count. The contract resolves on the official vote count once it has been certified, with official results from the state electoral authority as the primary source, and reliable reporting may be used in some cases [1]. If a recount starts before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount ends and the vote is certified [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC is a contract closing time, not a statement about when results will be certified [1]. Certification and resolution can occur later, particularly if a recount is needed.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the competitiveness of the GA-12 first-round race in percentage-point terms. Because it uses the gap between the top two candidates rather than the winner alone, it tracks how decisively the first place finisher prevails [1]. Prices for each bracket are market snapshots that reflect trading activity at the time they were recorded, not verified probabilities or executable quotes. The contract is also useful for understanding how rules shape outcomes. Boundary values, replacement nominees, tie-breaking, independent candidates, and recount timing all affect how a bracket resolves [1]. Reading the full rules is therefore essential before interpreting any bracket price.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the contract actually measure?
It measures the absolute difference, in percentage points, between the valid-vote shares of the first and second place candidates in the first round of the 2026 GA-12 House election [1].
Do independent candidates affect the Democrat or Republican options?
No. Independent candidates do not represent either party option in this contract [1].
What happens if a value falls exactly between two brackets?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
What happens if a nominee is replaced before election day?
The contract name is updated, and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of the party [1].
When is the contract resolved?
It resolves based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to "Other". A recount started before certification keeps the market open until the recount finishes and the vote is official [1].
Is the listed end time the same as the election date?
No. The listed end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z is a contract closing time, while the first round is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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