GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

GA-12 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Name: GA-12 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
End: 2026-11-03T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$700.72

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Markets

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GA-12 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Vol

$700.72

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $700.72

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $700.72

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 5% or more?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 5% or more?	Poly	21%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 10%-15%?	Poly	18%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 25% or more?	Poly	17%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 20%-25%?	Poly	12%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 5%-10%?	Poly	10%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 15%-20%?	Poly	9%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 0%-5%?	Poly	6%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 0%-5%?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

21%

Top Probability

$700.72

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The first round of the 2026 GA-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid vote

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** GA-12 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (59 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The first round of the 2026 GA-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid vote

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 GA-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid v"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $701
* **Total Liquidity:** $55.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 25% or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $162
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 20%-25%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $102
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 15%-20%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $62
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 10%-15%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $101
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 5%-10%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $62
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 0%-5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $96
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 0%-5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $49
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 5% or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $69
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics

GA-12 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Volume$700.72

Markets8

8 of 8

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POLYMARKET

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 5% or more?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 21.0¢No 79.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 5% or more?

The 2026 GA-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid v

POLYMARKET

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 10%-15%?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 18.0¢No 82.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 10%-15%?

POLYMARKET

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 25% or more?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 25% or more?

POLYMARKET

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 20%-25%?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 20%-25%?

POLYMARKET

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 5%-10%?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 5%-10%?

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Next Market Closes

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Nov 03, 2026 12:00 PM

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GA-12 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)