Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will SCOTUS bar the immediate NEPA challenge to the Air Force’s Guam hazardous-waste permit application?

Total Volume

$0.24

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will SCOTUS bar the immediate NEPA challenge to the Air Force’s Guam hazardous-waste permit application?

Vol

$0.24

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.24

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $0.24

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of United States Department of the Air Force in Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of United States Department of the Air Force in Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan	Kalshi	76%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

76%

Top Probability

$0.24

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before 2028 If the Supreme Court, in Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan, rules a federal RCRA permit-renewal application is not final agency action immediately reviewable under the Administrative Procedure Act, or that the federal government need not complete NEPA review before submitting such an application, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled, in Department of

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will SCOTUS bar the immediate NEPA challenge to the Air Force’s Guam hazardous-waste permit application?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2028

If the Supreme Court, in Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan, rules a federal RCRA permit-renewal application is not final agency action immediately reviewable under the Administrative Procedure Act, or that the federal government need not complete NEPA review before submitting such an application, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled, in Department of 

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of United States Department of the Air Force in Department of the Air Force v. Prutehi Guahan
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 75.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics