Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract covers a single five-minute window, from 3:40AM to 3:45AM ET on October 20. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over that range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the source states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The title uses Eastern Time, while the listed end time is recorded in UTC as 2026-10-20T07:45:00.000Z [1]. Readers comparing this contract with a similar one should check that both use the same window and data stream, since wording differences can change what is being measured.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T09:19:15.475Z [1]. It shows the provider status as active and lists two outcomes: "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are prices from that observation time only. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Because the contract has not closed, the snapshot does not show a result.
The gap between the two prices is small, and the snapshot does not explain it. The evidence contains no volume, liquidity, or trader information for this market, so nothing can be said about how much activity stands behind these figures.
The sample covers one market from one provider event on Polymarket. All saved markets for this event are included, but the evidence does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome [1]. No other platform's contract is included, so this snapshot should not be compared with differently worded contracts elsewhere.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the price at any time after the observation, and the snapshot should not be read as the current price on today's date. The evidence also does not include the actual resolution, since the listed end time falls after the retrieval time. Any outcome after the window closes would require a separate source.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-horizon crypto contract titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET" [1]. The contract asks whether the price of HYPE/USD will finish a five-minute window at or above where it started. According to the provider's rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The measurement is tied to a specific data feed. The stated resolution source is Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, with a 60-second TWAP stream identified in the rules [1]. The provider states that only this Chainlink data stream governs resolution, not other sources or spot markets for the asset pair [1]. That distinction matters because a price on an exchange or aggregator may differ from the figure the stream reports, and the contract follows the stream. The rules also specify the timing. The provider lists the event end time as 2026-10-20T07:45:00.000Z [1]. In Eastern Time, the window in the title ends at 3:45 AM on October 20, so the listed end time corresponds to the close of that window. The listed end time is the contract's closing point under the rules, and the rules do not state how or when the outcome will be published beyond the data stream reference [1]. At the time of the provider observation, the saved market showed two outcomes: "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from a single observation, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. The contract's status at observation was active [1]. The saved sample for this event contains only this one market, so it does not show a broader set of contracts.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the HYPE/USD price, as reported by a specific Chainlink time-weighted average stream, is at or above its starting level for one five-minute window [1]. Because the outcome depends on the average over the window compared with the starting price, the contract isolates short-term direction under a defined measurement rather than a general view of the asset's value. Traders and readers can use the rules to see exactly which data source and comparison decide the result [1]. The observed prices show how the market was pricing the two outcomes at one moment, which gives context but does not confirm what will happen [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Hyperliquid over the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price data controls the outcome?
The stated resolution source is Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream. The provider says the market is about the price according to that stream, not other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the contract end?
The provider lists the end time as 2026-10-20T07:45:00.000Z, which is 3:45 AM Eastern Time on October 20, the end of the window named in the title [1].
Do the listed prices show the chance that the price will rise?
The saved prices are snapshots from one observation, with Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. They are not executable quotes and are not verified probabilities, so they should be read only as the prices recorded at that time.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.