Solana Up or Down - October 31, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 31, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract covers the Solana price window from 11:15PM to 11:30PM ET on October 31. According to the saved excerpt, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The named source is the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream, and the excerpt says the market is "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-01T03:30:00.000Z [1]. That is the scheduled close, not a record of when or how the contract resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-31T16:54:46.664Z [1]. The prices below therefore describe the market at the observation time, not at the moment this page was read. The saved Polymarket prices were 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The supplied evidence does not explain why the prices stood where they did, so this summary offers no explanation.
The sample contains one market from one saved provider event. The coverage record shows all markets for that event were included and partialSample is false [1]. That does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for this window. No other outcomes were saved, so no comparison with omitted outcomes is possible.
The evidence contains no volume or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or participation.
What remains uncertain
The status was recorded as active at observation, but the snapshot is nearly eight hours older than the retrieval time, so the current status and prices are not known from this evidence. The outcome cannot be determined from the supplied material because the TWAP values for the window are not included. When comparing this contract with other crypto markets, check that the reference price, time window, and listed end time match. Different terms are different questions, so a price gap between them does not by itself indicate an opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 31, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 31, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term crypto contract titled "Solana Up or Down - October 31, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET." The contract is listed on Polymarket and asks whether the price of Solana (SOL) moved up or down over one 15-minute window [1]. The title sets the window, and the contract rules define the outcome. The rules say the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, as generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The comparison is therefore between an average price across the window and the starting price, not between the price at the start and the price at the end. The resolution source is Chainlink's SOL/USD TWAP data stream, which the rules identify by name [1]. The rules also state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the SOL/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. A reader comparing the contract with a price shown on an exchange or aggregator should keep this distinction in mind, because those figures may differ from the resolution data. The saved record lists an end time of 2026-11-01T03:30:00.000Z, and the provider status is recorded as active [1]. That end time is a field in the contract data. It is not an announcement of a separate event, and it does not by itself show how the market traded at any later point.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Solana's time-weighted average price over a single 15-minute window is at or above the price at the start of that window, as reported in Chainlink's SOL/USD TWAP data stream [1]. Because the outcome depends on an average over the window rather than a single closing print, a brief move at the end of the window may not decide the result in the same way it would for a simple start-to-end comparison. The contract also depends only on the named data stream, so it does not measure Solana's price on every venue [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-31 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What price does this contract use to decide the outcome?
It uses the time-weighted average price of Solana generated by Chainlink over the time range in the title, based on Chainlink's SOL/USD TWAP data stream [1].
What does "Up" mean under the contract rules?
The market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP over the window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
What does "Down" mean under the contract rules?
If the TWAP over the window is not greater than or equal to the starting price, the market resolves to "Down" [1].
Do exchange prices determine the result?
No. The rules state that the market is about the Chainlink TWAP data stream for SOL/USD and not any other sources or spot markets [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.