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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on May 4?

Name: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on May 4?
End: 2026-05-04T20:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$22.80

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on May 4?

Vol

$22.80

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $22.80

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $22.80

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $695 on May 4?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $695 on May 4?	Poly	96%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $700 on May 4?	Poly	95%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $705 on May 4?	Poly	94%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on May 4?	Poly	91%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on May 4?	Poly	75%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 4?	Poly	50%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on May 4?	Poly	48%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 4?	Poly	13%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 4?	Poly	5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 4?	Poly	4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 4?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$22.80

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on May 4?

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on May 4?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 4, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on May 4?

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on May 4, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".

Closing prices will be used exactly as published by P"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $23
* **Total Liquidity:** $7.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $705 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $700 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $695 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 96.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 3.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.1% (0.0%)]

### 10. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance